AI consensus leaned YES with STRONG conviction (4 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 36c |
28%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 45c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 17c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 36c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioning is directional but minimal: one alpha entered at 16c and stayed, signaling a low-conviction long-tail YES bet on France lifting the cup. The 1c entry-to-mark gap shows patience rather than chase behavior, consistent with a tournament-futures hold rather than momentum trading.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1bc6..36 | Smart | YES | $1.1K | +1% | |
| 0xa52b..80 | MM | YES | $16.4K | 0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$17,424 on $17.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $132.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 36c | — | ✓ matched |