How did 'Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jun 30, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jun 30, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $80.9M

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Resolved · JUN 30

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (2 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

86c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	25c	50%
Claude Analysis	NO	6c	88%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	5c	85%
Kimi Macro	NO	5c	95%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

The single tracked wallet's 95c NO entry reflects high-conviction positioning against Germany lifting the trophy, treating the outcome as a near-certain fade rather than a value play. With no YES exposure to balance the book, smart money is signaling structural disbelief in Germany's path through a deep tournament field, reinforcing the 5c consensus.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xa52b..80	MM	YES	$5.0K	+22%
This Market Entered at 5c → now 50c (+22%), $5.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 13BUYYES5+$4,108$4,108 Realized— Unrealized+$908 Total Profit+$908 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1324) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd81f..75	MM	NO	$2.8K	-1%
This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (-1%), $2.8K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 28 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 28BUYNO95+$2,844$2,844 Realized— Unrealized−$34 Total Profit−$34 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (572) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$1.6K	+4%
This Market Entered at 6c → now 50c (+4%), $1.6K on YES Activity · 3 events · Jun 09 → Jun 15 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 09SELLYES5−$440$0 Jun 14BUYYES6+$1,489$1,489 Jun 15BUYYES6+$498$2,059 Realized— Unrealized+$92 Total Profit+$92 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1512) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 90 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

30% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$6,445 on $9.4K capital deployed (avg -68.5%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

30% in profit

YES positions

70% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$80.9M	0c
AI Consensus	9c	—	✓ matched

Back to Market Radar