Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 38%: Will Gold have the best performance in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (38% YES, 62% NO).

What’s Happening

As of late May 2026, prediction market participants assign a 38% probability to the outcome that gold will have the best performance in 2026, against a 62% probability that it will not. This cautious sentiment reflects a complex macro environment for the precious metal. On May 18, 2026, JPMorgan cut its 2026 gold average price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708, citing a slowdown in near-term demand momentum and subdued investor positioning. The bank’s analysts noted that "gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment," though they maintained a base case bullish outlook and still see gold rising to $6,000 per troy ounce by year-end. This mixed signal from a major Wall Street institution helps explain why the market currently doubts that gold will have the best performance in 2026 relative to other assets. [Investing.com, May 18]

Adding to the bearish near-term pressure, veteran commodities strategist Jeffrey Currie revealed on May 19, 2026 that he has been "short gold" since March, pointing to the structural fallout of the Iran war that could force some states like Turkey to keep selling. Currie acknowledged that gold may face a short-term correction as geopolitical tensions and slowing momentum in central bank buying weigh on investor sentiment, but he remains convinced that the metal’s bull case is firmly intact in the longer term, with a potential run to $10,000. This divergence between short-term headwinds and long-term bullish forecasts creates uncertainty about whether gold will have the best performance in 2026, as the year is still young and macro conditions could shift rapidly. [Bitget, May 19]

Despite the cautious outlook from some analysts, the gold mining sector continues to show operational strength. On May 19, 2026, South African miner Harmony Gold reported strong Q3 performance, boosting cash flow and dividends while remaining on track to meet full-year production and cost guidance. On May 21, 2026, Agnico Eagle Mines announced a $2.4 billion investment to begin redevelopment of the Hope Bay Mine, having produced 825,109 payable gold ounces in Q1 2026. These developments suggest that underlying supply dynamics remain healthy, even as demand-side factors cool. The key question for the prediction market is whether a potential H2 recovery, as forecast by JPMorgan, or a sudden geopolitical catalyst could reverse current sentiment and ultimately prove that gold will have the best performance in 2026. [Marketscreener, May 19]

Traded on Polymarket — $248K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 40c YES with $248K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.