Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). While the US might question whether the 2025 and 2026 wars were worth the hardship, from an Israeli point of view, both were clearly worth it.

What’s Happening

The Institute for the Study of War reported on May 8, 2026 that the United States and Iran remain divided over Tehran's nuclear program, the status of its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile, and sovereignty claims over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated the same day that Tehran is still reviewing a recent US proposal and will respond once its review concludes. The Wall Street Journal, citing senior US officials, reported on May 6 that Washington has presented seven main demands, including the dismantlement of the Fordow and Esfahan nuclear facilities — terms Iranian negotiators have publicly resisted, sharpening the diplomatic backdrop against which any decision on whether Iran withdraw from the NPT would be measured. [Institute for the Study of War, May 8]

US intelligence assessments reviewed by Reuters on May 4, 2026 indicate that the timeline for Iran to build a nuclear weapon remains roughly one year, unchanged since the aftermath of the June 2025 US-Israeli strikes and despite the 2026 follow-on campaign. Three sources familiar with the matter said analysts now believe further constraint requires destroying Tehran's HEU stockpile outright. Hawkish voices in Washington and Jerusalem argue the strikes were strategically necessary; a separate New York Times investigation cited by Ynetnews on May 5 counters that the 2018 US withdrawal from the JCPOA correlated with an expansion — not contraction — of Iran's enriched uranium reserves, and that analysts suspect a secret enrichment site remains operational. [Jerusalem Post, May 4]

The structural factor that will determine whether Iran withdraw from the NPT before January 1, 2027 is the trajectory of the current US-Iran proposal exchange overseen by Baghaei's ministry. A formal NPT exit requires a 90-day notice to depositary states under Article X, meaning any withdrawal completed before year-end 2026 would need to be initiated by late September at the latest. Analysts cited by the Jerusalem Post on May 6 note that Tehran has historically used NPT-exit rhetoric as negotiating leverage rather than as a final step, while hawks counter that a collapse of the proposal track — combined with unresolved Fordow and Esfahan dismantlement demands — could shift the political calculus inside the Islamic Republic. [Jerusalem Post, May 6]

Traded on Polymarket — $124K Volume

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