AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked wallet established its NO at 65c and has ridden Cepeda's collapse from competitive contender to fringe candidate, confirming directional rather than arbitrage intent. Smart money never engaged the YES side, and the 65c NO entry implies the wallet always viewed Cepeda as overpriced relative to fundamentals — consistent with continued fade toward sub-10c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4488..19 ★ | MM | YES | $4.3K | -14% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$4,287 on $4.3K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $7.3M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |