AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 37c |
26%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 58c |
45%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 20c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 71c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 38c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entered NO precisely at the current 29c mark, signaling this level is the line of demarcation, not a discount. The absence of any tracked YES positioning reinforces a directional lean toward Vance skipping the meeting — wallets see 29c as fair-to-cheap for the NO thesis, implying fade-the-bounce behavior if YES rallies toward 35c+.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x22db..0f | Retail | YES | $2.6K | +70% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | YES | $2.3K | +168% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $2.2K | +86% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$11,254 on $7.1K capital deployed (avg +159.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $1.0M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 38c | — | × missed |