Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jul 06, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $21.8M

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Q: How did 'Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jul 06, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 06

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 3 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 7 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	85c	70%
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	60c	20%
Claude Analysis	YES	80c	55%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	81c	72%
Gemini Flash	YES	79c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	81c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 81c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Despite NO being tagged as the dominant side by flow, the smart money signal is contradictory: early YES entries near 13c reflect high-conviction directional bets that have ridden the full repricing, while NO entries clustered at 26c-57c look like fading attempts that the market overran. Tracked wallets are net-long Keiko with realized edge, implying further upside bias rather than a mean-reversion setup.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xcaab..dd	MM	NO	$2.6K	-25%
This Market Entered at 35c → now 50c (-25%), $2.6K on NO Activity · 5 events · Apr 15 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 15BUYNO37+$5,574$5,575 Apr 22SELLNO37−$404$5,171 May 20SELLNO26−$1,462$2,171 May 26SELLNO29−$152$2,269 May 29BUYNO20+$309$1,874 Realized−$660 Unrealized−$742 Total Profit−$1,402 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1524) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd039..32	MM	NO	$1.6K	+7%
This Market Entered at 26c → now 50c (+7%), $1.6K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 28 DatePositionAmountTotal May 28BUYNO26+$1,486$1,486 Realized— Unrealized+$103 Total Profit+$103 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1278) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc1b3..1c	MM	YES	$1.5K	+458%
This Market Entered at 13c → now 50c (+458%), $1.5K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jan 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 24BUYYES13+$276$276 Realized— Unrealized+$1,263 Total Profit+$1,263 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1162) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$1.2K	-49%
This Market Entered at 57c → now 50c (-49%), $1.2K on NO Activity · 3 events · Apr 12 → Apr 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 12BUYNO54+$1,208$1,207 Apr 13BUYNO62+$1,100$2,488 Apr 14BUYNO43+$69$1,801 Realized— Unrealized−$1,225 Total Profit−$1,225 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1602) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 90 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

22% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$4,979 on $6.9K capital deployed (avg +72.6%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

22% in profit

NO positions

78% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	72c	$21.8M	100c
AI Consensus	81c	—	✓ matched

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