Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jun 30, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $4.0M

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Q: How did 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 30, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUN 30

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 6 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	69c	38%
Claude Analysis	YES	95c	82%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	92c	85%
Kimi Macro	YES	94c	84%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 90c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money accumulated at 78c well before the rerating to 94c, signaling early conviction that NVIDIA would retain the market-cap crown through June 30. The absence of NO positioning combined with a single directional YES entry skews the signal bullish, though the 'NO dominant' flag suggests broader market flow disagrees with the tracked wallet's thesis.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xd48a..90	MM	YES	$6.8K	+17%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 50c (+17%), $6.8K on YES Activity · 7 events · Jan 26 → May 05 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 26BUYYES68+$1,000$1,000 Feb 02BUYYES71+$200$1,241 Feb 12BUYYES69+$40$1,261 Apr 11BUYYES87+$1,000$2,581 Apr 23BUYYES91+$500$3,200 Apr 24BUYYES92+$1,777$5,015 May 05BUYYES71+$3,333$7,183 Realized— Unrealized+$1,207 Total Profit+$1,207 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (162) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,925 on $6.8K capital deployed (avg +28.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	95c	$4.0M	100c
AI Consensus	90c	—	✓ matched

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