AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 22c |
56%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 32c |
36%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 15c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 73c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 31c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money is split but capital-weighted toward NO as the dominant side, signaling conviction that Oh Se-hoon does not win — yet the YES entries at 12c show at least one tracked wallet timed the bottom and is being rewarded as the market re-rates higher. The 12c-to-20c YES accumulation paired with stale 84c NO exposure suggests the directional edge has shifted toward YES even though headline positioning still reads NO-heavy.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1bc6..36 | Smart | NO | $5.3K | -4% | |
| 0x7616..ee | Retail | YES | $8.7K | +76% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$59,139 on $14.0K capital deployed (avg +421.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 20c | $7.3M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 31c | — | × missed |