As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?” at 92% YES with $546K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets put the probability at 92%: Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (92% YES).
OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing with the SEC, submitted by June 11, 2026, formally initiates the IPO review process while keeping financials private until the prospectus is released closer to the share sale. The company is targeting a public listing by December 31, 2026, contingent on SEC approval and market conditions, with a valuation estimated near $1 trillion and annualized revenue run rate around $25–30 billion. This timeline directly informs the "openai not ipo" contract, which currently prices a 92% probability that the company will not complete its offering by that year-end deadline, reflecting the regulatory and logistical hurdles inherent in a debut of this scale [Reuters, Jun 11].
The competitive landscape intensifies the stakes, as Anthropic and SpaceX are also positioning for IPOs within the same window, creating what one market strategist called a "tremendous amount of supply coming on the market." Anthropic’s proposed 40–50x revenue multiple has drawn warnings of being "dangerous" for public-market digestion, while OpenAI’s advertising business hit $1 billion in annualized revenue by August 31, 2026, a diversification effort touted ahead of its expected massive offering. Last time multiple mega-cap tech IPOs clustered in a single quarter—during the 2021 listing wave—subsequent aftermarket volatility led to prolonged drawdowns, a historical precedent that weighs on the "openai not ipo" probability as investors gauge whether the company can execute before year-end [247wallst, Aug 17].
Key indicators for the December 31 deadline include the SEC’s review queue, which has averaged 90–120 days for large filers in 2026, and broader equity-market conditions tied to the Federal Reserve’s rate path. OpenAI’s February 2026 debt facility of $1.8 billion, structured explicitly against IPO preparation, signals internal readiness, but the company has made no binding commitment beyond a "TBD" listing date in industry trackers. The 92% YES position on "openai not ipo" implies the market assigns a mere 8% chance of completion by the deadline, a spread that could narrow if the SEC accelerates review or if OpenAI releases its prospectus in the coming weeks—a move that would shift the contract’s resolution risk into the final quarter [Klover, Jun 07].
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Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on YES, fair value 94c vs market 92c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 90c | 74% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 94c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 62c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 92c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 94c | 78% |
5 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (90–98c vs 92c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 94c — market prices it at 92c. 2-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet holds only YES, with entries clustered at 79c, indicating a deliberate, high-conviction bet against an OpenAI IPO by end-2026. This smart money chose to accumulate at a relatively low cost, signaling confidence in the NO-IPO outcome and likely expecting further price appreciation. The lack of NO entries from this wallet implies it sees no credible near-term catalyst for an IPO, aligning with the dominant YES side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | YES | $2.4K | +16% |
All tracked YES positions are in profit, entered at 79c against a current price of 92c, locking in a 16% unrealized gain. With no NO entries, there is no opposing capital to pressure the price, creating strong support for YES near the 79c entry level. The absence of NO holders suggests limited selling pressure, reinforcing the bullish bias toward the 92c price.
Polymarket prices YES at 92c with $546K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 94c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 92c | $546K |
| Our Model | 94c | — |