Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?'?

As of October 2026, prediction markets price this at 95% YES on Polymarket with $810K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

95c

As of October 11, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?” at 95% YES with $810K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.

Prediction markets give a 95% probability to: will openai not ipo by december 31, 2026?.

Up from 45% to 95% since 2026-06-19 (+50pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $810K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: up to 5 AI models + 2 tracked wallets on every market with smart-money data. Verdict track record published on the accuracy page.

PRO Analysis

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HOLD · NO ENTRY AI VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money entered YES at 79c–95c.

— TARGET YIELD

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 79c–95c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5188..04	MM	YES	$2.5K	+21%
This Market Entered at 79c → now 95c (+21%), $2.5K on YES Activity · 1 event · Oct 28 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 28BUYYES79+$2,083$2,083 Realized— Unrealized+$436 Total Profit+$436 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1532) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4337..82	MM	YES	$1.1K	0%
This Market Entered at 95c → now 95c (0%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 1 event · Oct 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 07BUYYES95+$1,146$1,146 Realized— Unrealized−$4 Total Profit−$4 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1204) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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50% of YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 79c–95c. At current price 95c, 50% of YES holders are profitable vs none of the NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

50% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 95c YES — $810K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 95c with $810K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 95c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	95c	$810K
Our Model	95c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 95% YES with $810K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.