AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 8c |
86%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Both tracked wallets lean NO at rich 89c-94c entries, signaling smart money is fading Santos's candidacy rather than betting on an upset. The absence of any YES accumulation confirms conviction is one-directional: traders expect this market to resolve NO. The positioning points to continued suppression of the 9c YES price with no contrarian buyer stepping in.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | MM | NO | $18.9K | +2% | |
| 0xc1b3..1c | MM | NO | $13.4K | +0% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | NO | $10.7K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,522 on $42.9K capital deployed (avg +8.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $17.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |