Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 8% YES on Polymarket with $162K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

92c

YES

Prediction markets give a 8% probability to: will reza pahlavi be head of state in iran end of 2026?.

Down from 12% to 8% since 2026-04-14 (-4pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $162K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 8c YES with $162K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 27, 2026, 13:06 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 92c

Smart money entered NO at 86c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 86c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	NO	$3.6K	+7%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 86c → now 92c (+7%), $3.6K on NO Activity · 3 events · Mar 17 → Mar 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 17BUYNO86+$860$860 Mar 21BUYNO85+$793$1,643 Mar 23BUYNO86+$1,720$3,382 Realized— Unrealized+$226 Total Profit+$226 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1322) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 86c. At current price 8c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 6 Cents

Polymarket prices YES at 8c while Kalshi has it at 14c — a 6-cent gap. Kalshi traders are more bullish on YES. Our model estimates fair value at 8c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	8c	$162K
Kalshi	14c	—
Our Model	8c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 8% YES with $162K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.