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Geopolitics
Resolves: Dec 2026 7 months left Volume: $11.3M

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

NO
94c
YES
6c

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Down from 10% to 6% since 2026-04-14 (-4pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $11.3M Volume

One of the highest-volume markets on Polymarket with $11.3M traded. Deep liquidity means tight spreads — you can enter and exit large positions without significant slippage. Currently priced at 6c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 6/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.
CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT
HOLD

6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 10c vs market 6c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

— TARGET YIELD

6 of 6 Models Agree: NO

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelNO98c—
MATH Compound SignalNO74c—
AI Claude AnalysisNO97c
92%
AI DeepSeek QuantNO95c
85%
AI Gemini FlashNO85c
65%
AI Kimi MacroNO94c
94%

6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 94c). Kimi Macro leads with 94% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 94c. 4-point gap supports YES.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money positioned exclusively on NO at 81-88c entries, signaling early-and-strong conviction that Pahlavi will not lead Iran in 2026. The absence of tracked YES entries combined with high-priced NO accumulation indicates wallets treated this as a structural near-zero outcome rather than a contested probability. Direction implied: NO resolution, with current 6c pricing already reflecting the smart-money thesis.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0xd5cc..a4MMNO$41.5K+6%
0x7c3d..6bMMNO$4.0K+15%
See all 80 alpha wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

All NO holders are deeply in profit, having entered at 81-88c while YES now trades at 6c — a 75-82 point gain compounding their conviction. Zero YES participants are profitable, removing any defensive buying floor. Price support sits firmly on the NO side with no economic incentive for longs to defend the 6c level.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 4 Cents

Polymarket prices YES at 6c while Kalshi has it at 10c — a 4-cent gap. Kalshi traders are more bullish on YES. Our model estimates fair value at 10c.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket6c$11.3M
Kalshi10c—
Our Model10c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $11.3M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 10c YES. 6 models agree on direction.