Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jul 06, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $36.6M

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Q: How did 'Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 06, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 06

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (5 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

34c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	14c	72%
PIN Model	NO	14c	72%
Compound Signal	NO	24c	52%
Claude Analysis	NO	12c	78%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	14c	72%
Gemini Flash	NO	25c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	17c	75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 17c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is split but NO dominates by size, reflecting consensus that Sánchez Palomino is a low-probability candidate. YES wallets accumulating in the 10-20c range signal contrarian conviction on an outside path, while NO entries near 70-81c read as fade-the-longshot rather than high-conviction shorts.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x011f..22	Retail	NO	$5.5K	-5%
This Market Entered at 76c → now 50c (-5%), $5.5K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYNO76+$5,793$5,793 Realized— Unrealized−$300 Total Profit−$300 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 728 trades).
0xdd8e..23	MM	YES	$2.2K	+115%
This Market Entered at 10c → now 50c (+115%), $2.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 13BUYYES10+$1,500$1,501 Apr 13SELLYES14−$1,071$1,071 Realized+$321 Unrealized+$1,401 Total Profit+$1,722 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (132) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc1b3..1c	MM	NO	$1.9K	-12%
This Market Entered at 81c → now 50c (-12%), $1.9K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 16 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYNO81+$2,102$2,102 Realized— Unrealized−$241 Total Profit−$241 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1162) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xcaab..dd	MM	YES	$1.6K	+36%
This Market Entered at 20c → now 50c (+36%), $1.6K on YES Activity · 6 events · Apr 15 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 15BUYYES22+$632$632 Apr 16BUYYES18+$91$591 Apr 17BUYYES20+$301$975 Apr 18BUYYES22+$218$1,276 May 29BUYYES17+$345$1,346 May 29SELLYES21−$424$1,245 Realized+$21 Unrealized+$458 Total Profit+$479 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1524) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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66% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,630 on $11.1K capital deployed (avg -14.6%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

66% in profit

YES positions

34% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	28c	$36.6M	0c
AI Consensus	17c	—	✓ matched

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