Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Seven OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, to increase output by 188,000 barrels per day..

What’s Happening

The probability that Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords before 2027 stands at just 6%, reflecting deep geopolitical fractures that have emerged in the wake of the ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran. Relations between Washington and Riyadh have deteriorated sharply, with the United States reportedly weighing the withdrawal of troops from Saudi Arabia amid major tensions over the Iran war. This rift has effectively stalled the normalization process that was gaining momentum prior to the conflict, as Saudi leadership under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has grown wary of being seen as aligning with a US-led coalition that is deeply unpopular across the Arab world. The prospect of Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords now appears contingent on a fundamental reset of US-Saudi relations and a resolution to the regional instability caused by the war. [Times of Israel, Jul 01]

Compounding the diplomatic standoff, Saudi Arabia is actively deepening its economic and energy partnerships with other regional actors rather than moving toward Israel. On July 4, 2026, Syria launched a gas field development project with Saudi firm ADES in Homs, aiming to boost output by 50 percent by mid-2027, signaling Riyadh's focus on post-war reconstruction investments in Syria. Simultaneously, OPEC+ members—including Saudi Arabia and Russia—announced on July 6 that they will expand monthly oil production by 188,000 barrels per day from August, a move that underscores Saudi coordination with non-Western energy partners. These developments suggest that Riyadh is prioritizing economic diversification and energy market stability over the political risks associated with Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords, especially while the US-Israel war on Iran continues to destabilize the region. [Energetica India Magazine, Jul 04] [Al Jazeera, Jul 06]

Looking ahead, the path for Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027 faces additional headwinds from domestic political turmoil in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a leadership challenge within his own Likud party, with top rival Yuli Edelstein announcing on July 3 that he will not run in the party's primary—a move that signals internal fractures ahead of an impending election season. The instability in Israeli governance reduces the likelihood of any major diplomatic breakthroughs, as a caretaker government or election campaign would lack the political capital to negotiate a historic normalization deal with Riyadh. For the probability to shift meaningfully from its current 94% NO consensus, analysts would need to see a ceasefire in the Iran war, a restoration of US-Saudi trust, and a stable Israeli government—none of which appear imminent based on current events. [Haaretz, Jul 03]

Traded on Polymarket — $197K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $197K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.