Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).

What’s Happening

The probability that Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords before 2027 stands at just 16%, reflecting deep geopolitical fractures that have emerged among key Middle Eastern powers. A growing rift between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, detailed in a May 5, 2026 New York Times analysis, has widened over energy quotas, regional conflicts, and diverging strategic visions. The UAE, which normalized ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords in 2020, has publicly signaled that the ongoing Iran war could reshape its alliances, expressing disappointment with some of its closest Arab partners. This discord directly undermines the unified regional front that would be necessary for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords, as Riyadh and Abu Dhabi now pursue increasingly separate foreign policy paths. [NYT, May 5]

Compounding the diplomatic obstacles, a May 7, 2026 Haaretz report revealed that Saudi Arabia suspended U.S. military access to key bases and airspace, including Prince Sultan Air Base, after the Trump administration launched an uncoordinated operation in the Strait of Hormuz. The move forced a rapid U.S. reassessment of "Project Freedom" and highlighted Riyadh's willingness to leverage its strategic position independently. This assertiveness contrasts sharply with the cooperative security framework that underpins the Abraham Accords, suggesting that Saudi Arabia is prioritizing its own regional leverage over alignment with U.S.-led normalization efforts. The suspension of military access indicates that Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords is not currently a priority for the kingdom's leadership, which appears focused on projecting autonomy rather than deepening ties with Israel. [Haaretz, May 7]

Meanwhile, Israel has begun looking beyond the Middle East for strategic partnerships, as evidenced by President Isaac Herzog's visit to Kazakhstan in May 2026. A May 1 Ynetnews analysis noted that the Abraham Accords are evolving into a platform for pragmatic cooperation with middle powers outside the region, following Kazakhstan's association with the accords. This shift suggests that Israel is diversifying its diplomatic portfolio rather than waiting for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords. The CNN report from May 1 further confirmed that Israel sees an unprecedented opportunity to strengthen ties with the UAE amid the Iran war, but this bilateral focus does not extend to Riyadh. With the next U.S. presidential election approaching in November 2026 and Saudi-UAE relations at a low point, the window for Saudi accession before 2027 appears narrow, barring a major external catalyst such as a dramatic de-escalation of the Iran conflict or a unified U.S. diplomatic push. [Ynetnews, May 1]

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Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($89K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 11c YES.