Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

What’s Happening

President Donald Trump has made Saudi Arabia's participation in the Abraham Accords a formal precondition for advancing a U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement, a position reiterated by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on July 23, 2026. Trump first signaled this linkage in May 2026, urging Pakistan and several West Asian nations—including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Jordan—to recognize Israel as part of a broader diplomatic push tied to ending the U.S.-Iran conflict. The nuclear deal, which would involve the U.S. Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia, explicitly excludes any enrichment of material, but Riyadh has not yet issued a formal response to the condition. [CBS News, Jul 23]

The demand comes after the original Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, established a framework for Arab-Israeli normalization that Saudi Arabia has so far declined to join. Analysts point to Riyadh's longstanding position that it will not recognize Israel without a clear pathway to an independent Palestinian state, a stance that remains a significant obstacle. According to Yossi Mekelberg of the Arab Center Washington DC, there is currently "no incentive" for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords under existing circumstances, while former U.S. diplomat Barbara Leaf has echoed skepticism about the feasibility of Trump's timeline. [Times of India, May 27]

The stakes are substantial: analysts estimate that Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords could unlock a "trillion-dollar possibility" spanning artificial intelligence partnerships, the India-Middle East-Europe (IMEC) corridor, and broader commercial integration, according to Olam modeling cited by the Jewish News Syndicate. However, the timeline remains uncertain, with no date set for normalization talks. Trump has separately threatened Iran and its Houthi allies with "major military punishment," linking regional security dynamics to the diplomatic push. The current probability of Saudi Arabia joining the accords before 2027 stands at just 6%, reflecting deep skepticism among market participants about Riyadh's willingness to meet the stated conditions amid ongoing regional tensions and the unresolved Palestinian issue. [JNS, Jun 10]

Traded on Polymarket — $292K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $292K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.