AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 33c |
34%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 18c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 15c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Both tracked wallets positioned NO at deep premium levels (75-78c), signaling early conviction that Pratt's candidacy was a non-starter rather than a contested race. The absence of any YES smart money paired with concentrated NO entries above 75c reads as consensus fade — directional bias firmly against a Pratt victory.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $83.6K | +2% | |
| 0xe25b..1b | MM | NO | $51.0K | +6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$40,009 on $134.6K capital deployed (avg +29.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 20c | $7.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 15c | — | ✓ matched |