AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 52c |
4%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 62c |
24%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 88c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 85c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 57c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 69c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Tracked wallets entered YES at deep-value 24c levels — a conviction long established well before Carolina's price ran to 80c, signaling early-mover positioning rather than momentum chasing. The opposing NO entry at 44c looks like a contrarian fade that has decisively failed, reinforcing the directional read that smart money is aligned with continued YES strength.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | NO | $10.8K | -54% | |
| 0x6a72..ee | MM | YES | $3.4K | +231% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$57 on $14.2K capital deployed (avg -0.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 80c | $2.1M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 69c | — | ✓ matched |