Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 27, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $15.6M

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Q: How did 'Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 27, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 27

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	37c	26%
Compound Signal	NO	32c	36%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	19c	72%
Gemini Flash	NO	30c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	34c	60%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 30c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$1.5K	-46%
This Market Entered at 34c → now 50c (-46%), $1.5K on YES Activity · 3 events · May 11 → May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal May 11BUYYES34+$2,538$2,538 May 17BUYYES39+$60$2,927 May 22BUYYES33+$267$2,742 Realized— Unrealized−$1,333 Total Profit−$1,333 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1526) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6a72..ee	MM	YES	$1.2K	-17%
This Market Entered at 22c → now 50c (-17%), $1.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 13 → Apr 15 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 13BUYYES22+$1$1 Apr 15BUYYES22+$1,469$1,471 Realized— Unrealized−$253 Total Profit−$253 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (14) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,750 on $2.7K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	18c	$15.6M	0c
AI Consensus	30c	—	✓ matched

Back to Market Radar