AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 21c |
58%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 37c |
26%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 8c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 19c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 19c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is leaning YES with multiple tracked wallets accumulating at 24c — a 5c premium to current pricing that suggests they view 19c as a discount to fair value. The isolated NO entry at 87c looks like an early speculative short rather than informed positioning, leaving the directional signal tilted toward Spurs upside despite the longshot odds.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x011f..22 | Retail | NO | $1.7K | -6% | |
| 0xa8af..5e | MM | YES | $1.2K | +5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$925 on $2.9K capital deployed (avg -32.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18c | $42.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 19c | — | ✓ matched |