AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 68c |
36%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 30c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 10c |
75%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 45c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 90c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 46c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 11c–14c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x71ed..eb | MM | NO | $11.0K | -30% | |
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $2.2K | -47% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$13,180 on $13.2K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 92c | $43.1M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 46c | — | × missed |