Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 20, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $3.1M

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Q: How did 'Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 20, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 20

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 4 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	47c	6%
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	54c	8%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	34c	72%
Gemini Flash	???	55c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	66c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 43c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 25c–29c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde7b..4b	MM	NO	$24.2K	+30%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 50c (+30%), $24.2K on NO Activity · 9 events · Mar 05 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 05BUYNO39+$658$658 Mar 12BUYNO34+$432$1,012 Mar 13BUYNO35+$1,980$3,017 Apr 09BUYNO36+$3,397$6,496 Apr 14BUYNO30+$657$6,076 Apr 24BUYNO28+$284$5,955 Apr 29BUYNO31+$1,013$7,542 May 05BUYNO25+$6,807$12,932 May 08BUYNO28+$3,562$18,066 Realized— Unrealized+$5,442 Total Profit+$5,442 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (756) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4488..19 ★	MM	NO	$21.1K	+30%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 25c → now 50c (+30%), $21.1K on NO Activity · 6 events · May 03 → May 15 DatePositionAmountTotal May 03BUYNO23+$4,421$4,421 May 05BUYNO23+$1,311$5,736 May 06BUYNO24+$1,745$7,730 May 07BUYNO26+$4,741$13,008 May 12BUYNO30+$1,669$16,870 May 15BUYNO40+$1,427$23,719 Realized— Unrealized+$7,202 Total Profit+$7,202 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (858) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$123,422 on $45.3K capital deployed (avg +272.3%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	62c	$3.1M	0c
AI Consensus	43c	—	✓ matched

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