As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Trump and Putin not meet?” at 12% YES with $579K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Trump said Monday he would meet Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war, making a meeting likely despite the low odds of them not meeting.
The prospect of a Trump-Putin meeting has been complicated by conflicting signals over a proposed trilateral summit involving Chinese President Xi Jinping. On October 19, 2026, President Donald Trump said he would meet with Putin and Xi to discuss ending the Ukraine war, suggesting talks could proceed without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy present. The proposal was reportedly raised during an October 9 call between Trump and Putin. However, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on November 2 that China was not interested in a U.S.-Russia summit on Ukraine, casting doubt on whether the meeting would materialize on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen in mid-November. [CNBC, Oct 19]
The diplomatic maneuvering has intensified pressure on Kyiv. On October 20, Zelenskyy sought to mend ties with Trump ahead of a meeting between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin in Russia, with Ukrainian and European officials expressing concern that Washington increasingly treats Moscow as a partner. Trump has sharply criticized Zelenskyy over Ukraine's efforts to inflict heavy damage on Russian energy infrastructure. Zelenskyy also told Axios that Trump's diesel deal with Putin was "not fair and not honest," revealing that his negotiators learned of the planned Trump-Putin call only an hour before Trump's public statement. [PBS News, Oct 20]
Whether Trump and Putin will not meet remains an open question as diplomatic channels narrow. Putin has refused direct talks with Zelenskyy, and Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha condemned the proposed trilateral format, writing that inviting Putin would "feed his appetite for self-aggrandisement." The Wall Street Journal reported that souring conditions could derail the APEC sidelines encounter entirely. With the mid-November APEC meeting approaching and no confirmed agenda on Ukraine, the window for a Trump-Putin sit-down is tightening, leaving the question of whether the two leaders will not meet unresolved. [Euronews, Oct 19]
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