Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 13%: Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (13% YES). President Donald Trump speaks on the South Lawn of the White House on May 12, 2026.

What’s Happening

The political landscape surrounding the potential impeachment of President Donald Trump remains highly uncertain, with prediction market data showing a 13% YES probability that he will be impeached by the end of 2026. This low figure persists despite a series of escalating controversies and legislative maneuvers. Most recently, the Senate advanced a war powers resolution on May 20, 2026, with four Republicans—including a defeated Sen. Bill Cassidy—breaking ranks to force President Trump to end military action against Iran without congressional approval. This rare bipartisan defiance signals growing unease within the GOP, though it falls short of the two-thirds majority needed for a conviction in an impeachment trial. The resolution’s advancement, however, provides a procedural vehicle for Democrats to test the president’s support on national security grounds, a key area where a future impeachment article could be drafted. [New York Post, May 20]

The push for impeachment is further fueled by President Trump’s increasingly personal use of the presidency, as detailed in a recent CNN analysis. The report, published on May 22, 2026, describes a White House focused on benefiting the president himself while millions of Americans face an affordability crisis. This narrative of self-dealing is a central theme in any potential impeachment effort, as it echoes the abuse-of-power charges from his first term. Additionally, Trump’s decision on May 18, 2026 to drop a $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over leaked tax records has raised new questions about transparency and potential financial conflicts of interest. While the lawsuit’s withdrawal avoids a protracted legal battle, it removes a key avenue for the president to challenge the release of his tax information, which could be used as evidence in impeachment proceedings. [CNN, May 22] [Washington Post, May 18]

Looking ahead, the procedural path to impeachment remains steep. Democrats would need to secure a majority in the House to pass articles of impeachment, a feat that requires near-unanimous party support and potentially a handful of Republican defectors. The Senate, currently controlled by Republicans 53-47, would then need a two-thirds vote to convict, a threshold that appears out of reach given the current political calculus. However, Trump’s recent joke about potentially staying in office beyond 2028—made during a speech at the Coast Guard Academy on May 21, 2026—has further inflamed critics who argue it violates the 22nd Amendment. This comment, combined with the ongoing war powers debate and the tax record controversy, keeps the possibility of impeachment alive, though the 87% NO probability reflects the significant institutional and partisan barriers to removal. [Newsweek, May 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $709K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 13c YES with $709K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.