Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
NO
56c
YES
44c
As of October 17, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?” at 44% YES with $151K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 44% probability to: will trump endorse john cornyn for tx-sen by nov 2 2026 et?.
On this market: 5/6 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (70–98c vs 56c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 56c. 29-point gap supports NO.
Why One Model Is Uncertain: Claude Analysis at Nonec — not available tonight (Claude CLI session limit or nightly cap)
1 Active Wallets on This Market
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 98c, a near-certainty bet that has since moved against it as YES climbed to 44c. This lone NO entry signals a contrarian stance against a Trump endorsement, but with just one wallet and no YES entries, it offers limited directional insight beyond a bearish bias on the endorsement.
Wallet
Category
Side
Amount
P&L
0xbacd..35
MM
NO
$10.9K
-43%
This Market
Entered at 98c → now 56c (-43%), $10.9K on NO
Activity · 5 events · Mar 05 → Oct 14
DatePositionAmountTotal
Mar 05BUYNO7+$5$5
May 19BUYNO98+$19,708$19,779
May 26SELLNO99−$231$19,568
Oct 08SELLNO98−$51$19,397
Oct 14SELLNO98−$13$19,394
Realized—
Unrealized−$8,465
Total Profit−$8,464
Wallet Type
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1776) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
With YES at 44c, neither side shows profitable entries—NO holders bought at 98c and are underwater, while no YES entries are recorded. The absence of profitable positions on either side suggests thin conviction and weak price support, with the market likely drifting on low liquidity rather than informed flow.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 44c YES — $151K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 44c with $151K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 15c. Significant 29-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
What are the current odds for Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 44% YES with $151K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 15c YES. 5 models agree on direction.
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