As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?” at 7% YES with $3.1M traded. 4 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Ukraine's martial law suspends wartime elections, keeping Zelenskyy in office as peace talks with Russia stall. He stays through 2026.
The question of whether Zelenskyy is out as Ukraine president by end of 2026 gained fresh relevance on 12 August 2026, when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv had handed US negotiators new proposals aimed at ending the four-and-a-half-year war with Russia. The move came amid signals from both Kyiv and Moscow that American envoys would soon visit each capital. A negotiated settlement matters directly to Zelenskyy's tenure: any ceasefire framework could reopen debate over lifting martial law and scheduling a long-delayed national election, the only constitutional mechanism by which he would leave office. [Al Jazeera, Aug 12]
Procedurally, the odds of Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president remain constrained by wartime law. Under martial law, first imposed in February 2022 and repeatedly extended by parliamentary vote, Ukraine's constitution bars holding a presidential election, and Zelenskyy's original five-year mandate has been formally extended for the duration of the conflict. No impeachment filing, no-confidence motion, or succession deadline is currently active in the Verkhovna Rada. On 18 July 2026, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine had put forward "dozens" of proposals to end the war in 2026 alone, all rejected by Moscow — underscoring that peace legislation and any electoral timetable remain stalled. [Ukrainska Pravda, Jul 18]
What comes next hinges on the diplomatic track. On 5 July 2026, US President Donald Trump held separate calls with Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy on ending the war, following an earlier three-way exchange in mid-June; CFR analysts framed the moment as potentially the "best opportunity for peace since 2022." Absent a formal ceasefire, martial law stays in force and no election can be called, leaving little constitutional path for a leadership change before December 2026. Whether Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president becomes plausible depends on a settlement materializing and elections being scheduled within the year — neither of which is on the near-term calendar. [CBS News, Jul 5]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo8/8 models agree on NO, fair value 10c vs market 6c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 6c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 94c | 88% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 88% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 72% |
8 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–97c vs 94c). Claude Analysis leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 94c. 4-point gap supports YES.
All tracked wallets are on the NO side, with entries clustered between 68c and 94c, signaling smart money views Zelenskyy's departure as highly unlikely. The absence of YES entries among tracked wallets suggests no informed capital is betting on his exit, reinforcing the bearish YES outlook. These high-entry NO positions imply a strong belief in the status quo, and any YES price increase would likely be met with additional NO selling from these holders.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | Smart | NO | $4.3K | +29% | |
| 0x253d..07 | MM | NO | $1.9K | +37% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $1.9K | -1% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $1.4K | — |
NO positions dominate, with 75% of wallets in profit and entries ranging from 68c to 94c, indicating strong conviction at higher prices. The 6c YES price is far below any NO entry, suggesting NO holders are deeply underwater on a mark-to-market basis but likely see value in holding to expiry. This creates heavy resistance for YES rallies, as NO profit-taking would likely occur only near 90c+, leaving price support weak near current levels.
Polymarket prices YES at 7c with $3.1M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $3.1M |
| Our Model | 10c | — |