AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 46c |
8%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 24c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 45c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 76c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 33c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Lone tracked entry leaned hard against the flip at 81c, signaling early conviction that ETH would not overtake BTC in 2026 — but that thesis is bleeding as YES rallied to 47c. With only one wallet and no fresh NO adds at distressed levels, smart money is absent rather than reloading, leaving directional read weak and trend-following YES momentum unchecked.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0aae..1c | MM | NO | $3.1K | -68% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$3,146 on $3.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 74c | $607.7K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 33c | — | × missed |