AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 7c |
80%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
95%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money's 89c NO entry signals high conviction that gold settles outside the $5,800-$6,200 band in June, treating the range as too narrow to capture. With 100% of tracked NO in profit and YES at 5c, the positioning aligns with current pricing and offers no contrarian edge — the trade is mature, not actionable.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4e25..a7 | MM | NO | $3.1K | +6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$370 on $3.1K capital deployed (avg +12.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $280.1K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |