AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
82%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
93%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned NO at 47c when the market still priced meaningful release odds, and that conviction has been vindicated by the collapse to 7c. The absence of any tracked YES entries combined with the 47c NO anchor signals tier-1 wallets read the June 30 deadline as structurally unreachable — bureaucratic and political friction outweigh disclosure pressure.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6bab..92 ★ | MM | NO | $2.0K | +98% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,252 on $2.0K capital deployed (avg +111.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $872.5K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 7c | — | ✓ matched |