Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Epstein client list released by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). And during her time as attorney general, Pam Bondi was unquestionably one of those people.
The public anticipation for a comprehensive Epstein client list released to the public remains high, fueled by past statements from officials. In February 2025, former Attorney General Pam Bondi stated on Fox News that the list was "sitting on my desk right now to review," a comment that significantly heightened expectations. However, since that declaration, tangible progress toward public disclosure has been mired in political rhetoric and legal complexity, with administration figures dismissing calls for transparency as partisan attacks. [Seattletimes, Apr 05]
Legal complications are now a central obstacle. A new class action lawsuit, filed in the Northern District of California on behalf of approximately 100 anonymous victims, accuses the Department of Justice of violating their privacy by publishing identifying information in prior document releases. The plaintiffs are seeking injunctive relief and damages, a move that could establish stricter privacy precedents and further complicate any future effort to publicly name individuals associated with Epstein. [Findlaw, Apr 06]
The immediate path forward involves ongoing congressional investigation, though it has hit a procedural snag. A House committee subpoenaed Bondi in March to discuss her oversight of the Epstein files, but her scheduled deposition for April 14 has been postponed. Meanwhile, other high-profile figures like Bill Gates are slated to testify, indicating the probe continues but casting doubt on swift, conclusive action that would lead to a definitive Epstein client list released by the end of June. [STLPR, Apr 08]
Polymarket prices this at 18c YES with $521K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 16c vs market 18c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 68c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 83c | 70% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 90c | 75% |
| AI Gemini Flash | ??? | 35c | 60% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 82c | 80% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (68–98c vs 82c). Kimi Macro leads with 80% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 84c — market prices it at 82c. 2-point gap supports NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 47c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6bab..92 | MM | NO | $2.1K | +72% |
NO wallets entered at 47c. At current price 18c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 18c with $521K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 16c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18c | $521K |
| Our Model | 16c | — |