AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
95%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
93%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unambiguously short: both tracked wallets on the NO side entered at 69c — a conviction price reflecting high confidence Iran would not surrender its stockpile by April 30. The single YES position at 25c looks like a speculative long-shot rather than informed flow, and the 62c spread between sides marks this as a one-sided trade where tracked wallets treated the diplomatic outcome as near-impossible from the start.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $48.9K | +29% | |
| 0x2e0b..70 ★ | MM | NO | $8.3K | +0% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $2.5K | -103% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$19,644 on $59.7K capital deployed (avg +32.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $3.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |