How did 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jul 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $65.9M

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Resolved · JUL 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 6 of 7 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

STRONG RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	2c	96%
PIN Model	NO	3c	94%
Compound Signal	NO	15c	70%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	3c	85%
Gemini Flash	NO	12c	75%
Kimi Macro	NO	7c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

8 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 10 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 8 market makers are providing $423K in liquidity, primarily on NO. All 1 positioned NO — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x8152..da	Smart	NO	$3.1K	+28%
This Market Entered at 73c → now 50c (+28%), $3.1K on NO Activity · 5 events · Mar 08 → Mar 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 08BUYNO68+$680$680 Mar 10BUYNO76+$759$1,519 Mar 11BUYNO77+$385$1,924 Mar 17BUYNO71+$355$2,130 Mar 25BUYNO78+$197$2,537 Realized— Unrealized+$698 Total Profit+$698 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1768 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xc658..84	MM	NO	$235.3K	+23%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 50c (+23%), $235.3K on NO Activity · 7 events · Mar 05 → Apr 15 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 05BUYNO62+$62,000$62,000 Mar 06BUYNO63+$41,760$105,072 Mar 14SELLNO73−$86,140$35,014 Apr 07BUYNO90+$45,923$89,091 Apr 13BUYNO90+$45,000$134,091 Apr 14BUYNO91+$45,500$181,081 Apr 15BUYNO92+$46,000$229,071 Realized+$12,367 Unrealized+$41,130 Total Profit+$53,498 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1756) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$76.3K	+16%
This Market Entered at 83c → now 50c (+16%), $76.3K on NO Activity · 16 events · Mar 03 → May 21 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 03BUYNO64+$2,757$2,757 Mar 06BUYNO63+$3,053$5,782 Mar 09BUYNO74+$1,026$7,781 Mar 19BUYNO72+$1,818$9,388 Mar 23BUYNO75+$28,760$38,539 Mar 24BUYNO80+$1,022$42,130 Mar 25SELLNO79−$5,441$36,162 Apr 01BUYNO89+$118$40,857 Apr 03SELLNO86−$5,287$34,193 Apr 07SELLNO88−$5,409$29,578 Apr 13BUYNO90+$8,877$39,128 Apr 14BUYNO91+$5,055$44,618 Apr 15BUYNO92+$13,644$58,752 Apr 21SELLNO92−$2,887$55,864 May 20BUYNO95+$19,000$76,686 May 21SELLNO95−$2,975$73,711 Realized+$2,773 Unrealized+$9,594 Total Profit+$12,367 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1590) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6bab..92 ★	MM	NO	$35.2K	+33%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 71c → now 50c (+33%), $35.2K on NO Activity · 1 event · Mar 15 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 15BUYNO71+$26,459$26,459 Realized— Unrealized+$8,758 Total Profit+$8,758 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1704) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$28.3K	+13%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 82c → now 50c (+13%), $28.3K on NO Activity · 12 events · Mar 01 → May 02 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 01BUYNO50+$2,552$2,552 Mar 09BUYNO76+$405$4,285 Mar 10BUYNO79+$629$5,080 Mar 26BUYNO78+$147$5,167 Mar 30BUYNO82+$723$6,155 Mar 31BUYNO87+$483$7,013 Apr 01BUYNO89+$7,503$14,673 Apr 02BUYNO88+$3,237$17,798 Apr 06BUYNO87+$2,620$20,161 Apr 30BUYNO92+$621$21,941 May 01BUYNO93+$3,709$25,888 May 02BUYNO94+$1,984$28,151 Realized— Unrealized+$3,687 Total Profit+$3,687 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1824 trades).
0x5bff..be ★	MM	NO	$26.8K	+28%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 62c → now 50c (+28%), $26.8K on NO Activity · 7 events · Mar 02 → Mar 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 02BUYNO60+$127,132$127,132 Mar 02SELLNO65−$13,864$123,862 Mar 03SELLNO65−$83,308$40,554 Mar 06BUYNO62+$41,900$80,582 Mar 10BUYNO78+$18,834$120,211 Mar 10SELLNO78−$47,492$72,720 Mar 24SELLNO80−$51,899$22,686 Realized+$26,760 Unrealized+$9,251 Total Profit+$36,011 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1088) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4337..82	MM	NO	$23.6K	+22%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 50c (+22%), $23.6K on NO Activity · 2 events · Feb 20 → Apr 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Feb 20BUYNO74+$18,052$18,052 Apr 10BUYNO90+$566$22,522 Realized— Unrealized+$5,029 Total Profit+$5,029 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (427) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$16.1K	+11%
This Market Entered at 83c → now 50c (+11%), $16.1K on NO Activity · 28 events · Mar 02 → May 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 02BUYNO59+$2,643$2,643 Mar 06SELLNO62−$5,110$0 Mar 07SELLNO66−$1,330$0 Mar 09BUYNO76+$152$152 Mar 14BUYNO74+$148$296 Mar 15BUYNO72+$2,495$2,782 Mar 15SELLNO71−$2,196$560 Mar 16SELLNO72−$3,600$0 Mar 19BUYNO73+$6,351$6,351 Mar 23BUYNO79+$2,249$9,122 Mar 23SELLNO76−$5,149$3,626 Mar 24BUYNO80+$2,800$6,617 Mar 24SELLNO79−$4,037$2,498 Mar 25SELLNO78−$2,287$179 Mar 28BUYNO81+$4,030$4,215 Mar 31BUYNO85+$3,777$8,222 Apr 01BUYNO89+$3,212$11,821 Apr 06BUYNO87+$676$12,231 Apr 07BUYNO89+$2,863$15,356 Apr 07SELLNO86−$946$13,916 Apr 08BUYNO92+$3,043$17,930 Apr 10BUYNO91+$1,138$18,872 Apr 12BUYNO90+$566$19,231 Apr 12SELLNO90−$3,473$15,758 May 04SELLNO94−$4,670$11,788 May 06BUYNO95+$4,192$16,116 May 07BUYNO96+$1,920$18,190 May 12BUYNO95+$7,600$25,601 Realized+$860 Unrealized+$1,955 Total Profit+$2,815 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1030) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc408..75	MM	NO	$6.1K	+18%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 50c (+18%), $6.1K on NO Activity · 2 events · Jan 12 → Apr 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 12BUYNO65+$1,848$1,848 Apr 13BUYNO89+$3,210$5,756 Realized— Unrealized+$1,054 Total Profit+$1,054 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1444) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	NO	$3.7K	+23%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 50c (+23%), $3.7K on NO Activity · 25 events · Jan 12 → May 16 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 12BUYNO61+$509$509 Jan 13BUYNO63+$2,060$2,585 Jan 14BUYNO54+$842$3,074 Jan 16SELLNO70−$1,968$1,974 Jan 21BUYNO77+$691$2,871 Feb 01SELLNO80−$15$2,969 Feb 08BUYNO78+$15$2,910 Feb 23BUYNO75+$642$3,440 Feb 28BUYNO55+$2,029$4,544 Mar 01BUYNO57+$11,917$16,677 Mar 02SELLNO62−$3,229$14,886 Mar 03BUYNO61+$5,446$20,001 Mar 06BUYNO65+$3,250$24,562 Mar 09SELLNO72−$3,206$24,001 Mar 10SELLNO78−$2,105$23,899 Mar 15BUYNO72+$7,180$29,177 Mar 22SELLNO77−$7,163$24,127 Mar 24SELLNO80−$4,000$21,067 Mar 26BUYNO78+$7,800$28,341 Mar 30SELLNO84−$1,636$28,884 Apr 01SELLNO87−$4,350$25,566 Apr 08SELLNO91−$3,846$22,896 Apr 11SELLNO93−$186$23,213 Apr 17BUYNO94+$15$23,478 May 16BUYNO95+$6,333$30,060 Realized+$6,055 Unrealized+$815 Total Profit+$6,870 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1022) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$135,113 on $454.6K capital deployed (avg +29.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$65.9M	0c
AI Consensus	7c	—	✓ matched

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