Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 14% YES on Polymarket with $1.9M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

86c

YES

14c

Prediction markets give a 14% probability to: iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by december 31, 2026?.

Currently at 14%

Traded on Polymarket — $1.9M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.9M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 14c YES.

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Smart money signal: 3 tracked wallets positioned NO. Backed by $1.9M in trading volume.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 86c

Smart money entered NO at 62c–69c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $17K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 62c–69c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x162f..8d	MM	NO	$9.8K	+26%
This Market Entered at 62c → now 86c (+26%), $9.8K on NO Activity · 3 events · Apr 12 → Jun 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 12BUYNO51+$3,686$3,686 Apr 16SELLNO32−$935$1,369 Jun 18BUYNO73+$5,224$8,359 Realized−$561 Unrealized+$2,754 Total Profit+$2,193 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1084) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$3.4K	-84%
This Market Entered at 45c → now 14c (-84%), $3.4K on YES Activity · 14 events · Apr 21 → Jun 15 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 21BUYYES47+$162$162 Apr 21SELLYES45−$166$0 Apr 22BUYYES39+$474$474 May 18BUYYES44+$569$1,104 May 20BUYYES42+$1,093$2,146 May 21BUYYES37+$191$2,082 May 23BUYYES41+$202$2,509 May 24BUYYES56+$4,861$8,277 May 25BUYYES60+$479$9,357 May 29BUYYES47+$830$8,176 Jun 03BUYYES38+$621$7,231 Jun 10SELLYES37−$163$6,878 Jun 11BUYYES34+$2,582$8,882 Jun 15SELLYES30−$521$7,247 Realized−$322 Unrealized−$7,498 Total Profit−$7,820 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1278) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$3.4K	+13%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 86c (+13%), $3.4K on NO Activity · 9 events · Apr 16 → Jul 01 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYNO29+$66$66 Apr 21BUYNO46+$764$868 May 06BUYNO66+$440$1,688 May 12BUYNO55+$183$1,590 May 13BUYNO55+$277$1,867 May 25BUYNO66+$639$2,891 May 29BUYNO51+$20$2,242 Jun 27BUYNO80+$240$3,757 Jul 01BUYNO83+$922$4,820 Realized— Unrealized+$647 Total Profit+$647 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1970) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 45c, NO wallets at 62c–69c. At current price 14c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 14c YES — $1.9M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 14c with $1.9M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	14c	$1.9M
Our Model	14c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 14% YES with $1.9M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.