Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

What’s Happening

On May 24, 2026, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran has not agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile, stating that the nuclear issue "will be addressed in negotiations for a final agreement" and is not part of the current deal. This direct denial came just two days after a senior Trump administration official told CBS News that Iran had "in principle" agreed to a deal including the disposal of highly enriched uranium, with President Trump posting on TruthSocial that he told representatives "not to rush into a deal" and that "time is on our side." The contradiction between U.S. and Iranian statements has driven the market for an "iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile" outcome to 8% YES, reflecting deep trader skepticism about a near-term breakthrough despite the diplomatic flurry [Reuters, May 24].

The stakes are unusually high because Iran's stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium, estimated at roughly 60% enrichment, survived Israeli strikes in March 2026 largely intact, according to a Reuters report from March 9, 2026. The Middle East Forum has characterized the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire as a "political disaster" for Israel, while opposition leaders in Israel have publicly condemned the framework. The market's collapse from 53% YES on May 23 to its current 8% level tracks the rapid deterioration in public statements, with the Iranian denial landing as the most recent authoritative data point. Analysts note that the April 2026 ceasefire, which halted direct military exchanges, created a narrow window for diplomacy, but the physical custody of enriched uranium remains the single most contested issue in the talks [CBS News, May 22].

The structural factor that will determine whether an "iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile" deal materializes by December 31, 2026 is the sequencing of sanctions relief versus physical verification. Iranian negotiators have consistently linked any shipment of enriched material to guarantees of banking access and oil export waivers, while U.S. officials demand the stockpile leave Iranian territory before any significant sanctions are lifted. The May 24 denial from Tehran suggests that the current interim agreement, which reportedly covers ceasefire terms and prisoner exchanges, deliberately excluded the uranium question to avoid a collapse. With the market pricing a 92% probability of failure, traders are effectively betting that the gap between U.S. verification demands and Iranian economic guarantees cannot be bridged within seven months, particularly given the hardline factions in Tehran's parliament who have rejected any physical transfer of nuclear material [Action Network, Apr 21].

Traded on Polymarket — $2.1M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.1M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 8c YES.