Geopolitics

Resolves: Dec 2026 4 months left Volume: $6.2M

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?'?

As of August 2026, prediction markets price this at 81% YES on Polymarket with $6.2M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 7 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 84c YES. 6 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

81c

19c

Prediction markets put the probability at 81%: Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (81% YES).

Up from 70% to 81% since 2026-05-31 (+11pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $6.2M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $6.2M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 81c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 6/7 models independently agree YES — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 81c

6/7 models agree on YES, fair value 84c vs market 81c. 2 tier-1 wallets aligned with models — BUY YES at 81c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 of 7 Models Agree: YES

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	YES	89c	—
MATH PIN Model	YES	94c	—
MATH Compound Signal	YES	68c	—
AI DeepSeek Quant	YES	84c	72%
AI Grok Contrarian	NO	58c	61%
AI Gemini Flash	YES	85c	82%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	84c	85%

6 of 7 models estimate YES fair value above market (68–94c vs 81c). Kimi Macro leads with 85% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 84c — market prices it at 81c. 3-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 42c — Market at 81% YES and math models at 84% heavily price orderly dynastic succession but ignore Ali Khamenei's actuarial survival odds past...

3 of 7 Wallets Are Geopolitics Specialists

We tracked 7 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 are geopolitics specialists with 100% average win rate. 2 of 3 smart wallets positioned YES.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	Smart	YES	$70.7K	+41%
This Market Entered at 56c → now 81c (+41%), $70.7K on YES Activity · 67 events · Mar 08 → Aug 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 08BUYYES34+$121$121 Mar 09BUYYES31+$552$662 Mar 10BUYYES37+$571$1,349 Mar 10SELLYES39−$209$1,207 Mar 11BUYYES35+$2,291$3,389 Mar 12BUYYES35+$1,600$4,988 Mar 13BUYYES32+$573$5,160 Mar 14BUYYES30+$499$5,255 Mar 14SELLYES31−$77$5,319 Mar 15BUYYES30+$2,088$7,291 Mar 16BUYYES35+$263$8,724 Mar 19BUYYES36+$287$9,316 Mar 20BUYYES35+$357$9,319 Mar 23BUYYES41+$840$11,776 Mar 23SELLYES43−$65$12,371 Mar 24BUYYES43+$4,045$16,453 Mar 25BUYYES48+$1,553$19,894 Mar 26BUYYES51+$4,767$25,819 Mar 27BUYYES43+$304$21,886 Mar 29BUYYES44+$7$22,876 Mar 30BUYYES45+$3,508$26,831 Mar 31BUYYES60+$6,704$42,122 Mar 31SELLYES59−$70$41,553 Apr 01BUYYES64+$419$45,627 Apr 03BUYYES63+$78$44,783 Apr 03SELLYES63−$305$44,478 Apr 04BUYYES61+$277$43,060 Apr 04SELLYES61−$204$43,070 Apr 06BUYYES57+$2,004$42,315 Apr 11BUYYES67+$227$49,959 Apr 13BUYYES60+$313$45,141 Apr 15BUYYES66+$344$49,713 Apr 16BUYYES67+$1,475$52,496 Apr 17BUYYES68+$6,860$59,784 Apr 19SELLYES67−$327$58,929 Apr 20BUYYES66+$2,646$60,334 Apr 21BUYYES62+$125$57,213 Apr 21SELLYES64−$3,617$55,337 Apr 23SELLYES60−$1,822$49,946 Apr 24BUYYES59+$593$49,328 May 03SELLYES66−$6,444$48,981 May 04SELLYES66−$1,382$47,843 May 07BUYYES67+$1,391$49,963 May 08BUYYES66+$131$48,729 May 16BUYYES64+$693$48,536 May 20BUYYES66+$1,774$51,533 May 21SELLYES67−$1,096$51,484 May 23BUYYES66+$313$50,825 May 23SELLYES62−$164$47,889 May 25SELLYES70−$388$53,456 May 26SELLYES70−$2,937$50,069 May 29BUYYES70+$5,480$55,931 Jun 06BUYYES72+$3,301$60,995 Jun 08BUYYES68+$4$56,941 Jun 11BUYYES68+$323$57,518 Jun 12BUYYES75+$2,353$65,656 Jun 14BUYYES80+$3,440$73,628 Jun 14SELLYES80−$135$73,705 Jun 18SELLYES84−$1,916$75,788 Jun 23BUYYES82+$296$74,107 Jun 26SELLYES84−$8,502$67,283 Jun 30BUYYES81+$981$65,949 Jun 30SELLYES84−$2,307$66,000 Jul 06BUYYES83+$1,674$67,109 Jul 20BUYYES74+$335$59,958 Jul 21SELLYES76−$21$61,801 Aug 25BUYYES83+$4,882$71,988 Realized+$9,124 Unrealized+$22,105 Total Profit+$31,229 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1294 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xc021..a8 ★	Smart	YES	$9.7K	+52%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 45c → now 81c (+52%), $9.7K on YES Activity · 12 events · Mar 16 → Jul 31 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 16BUYYES33+$1,039$1,039 Mar 21BUYYES37+$637$1,784 Mar 22BUYYES36+$1,663$3,417 Mar 23BUYYES36+$360$3,777 Mar 26BUYYES53+$2,142$7,702 Apr 03SELLYES64−$570$8,674 Apr 04BUYYES61+$778$9,103 Apr 17BUYYES69+$31$10,377 May 19SELLYES66−$48$9,810 Jun 02BUYYES72+$1,230$11,924 Jul 30SELLYES79−$3,279$9,773 Jul 31SELLYES78−$414$9,283 Realized+$1,799 Unrealized+$4,341 Total Profit+$6,140 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1130 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xfcf2..69	Smart	NO	$3.9K	-88%
This Market Entered at 51c → now 19c (-88%), $3.9K on NO Activity · 12 events · Mar 13 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 13BUYNO67+$1,907$1,907 Mar 14BUYNO71+$399$2,411 Mar 19BUYNO65+$1,430$3,630 Mar 23BUYNO57+$1,878$5,089 Apr 01BUYNO38+$89$3,456 Apr 03BUYNO37+$119$3,491 Apr 04BUYNO38+$361$3,966 Apr 07BUYNO58+$1,811$7,784 Apr 08BUYNO45+$257$6,302 Apr 12BUYNO37+$775$5,962 May 22BUYNO34+$756$6,347 May 23BUYNO37+$976$7,746 Realized— Unrealized−$6,831 Total Profit−$6,831 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1962 resolved bets. Disagrees with consensus.
0xa8af..5e	MM	YES	$2.6K	+8%
This Market Entered at 73c → now 81c (+8%), $2.6K on YES Activity · 5 events · May 29 → Jul 14 DatePositionAmountTotal May 29BUYYES71+$2,211$2,211 Jun 04BUYYES72+$359$2,611 Jun 10BUYYES69+$311$2,811 Jun 13BUYYES78+$1,382$4,585 Jul 14SELLYES76−$2,012$2,454 Realized+$91 Unrealized+$271 Total Profit+$362 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1446) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$2.4K	+32%
This Market Entered at 67c → now 81c (+32%), $2.4K on YES Activity · 15 events · Mar 08 → Aug 02 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 08BUYYES24+$70$70 Mar 31BUYYES60+$300$471 Apr 14BUYYES65+$1,090$1,598 Apr 22BUYYES60+$67$1,548 Apr 29BUYYES60+$17$1,566 May 06BUYYES67+$754$2,497 May 07BUYYES67+$286$2,804 May 20BUYYES69+$190$3,063 Jun 02SELLYES71−$1,423$1,741 Jun 05BUYYES72+$691$2,459 Jul 08SELLYES83−$1,749$1,086 Jul 15BUYYES79+$178$1,208 Jul 17BUYYES77+$95$1,276 Jul 24BUYYES73+$712$1,913 Aug 02BUYYES81+$230$2,352 Realized+$556 Unrealized+$426 Total Profit+$982 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1244) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	NO	$2.0K	-21%
This Market Entered at 23c → now 19c (-21%), $2.0K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jul 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 13BUYNO23+$2,541$2,540 Realized— Unrealized−$522 Total Profit−$522 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1670) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	YES	$1.4K	+7%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 76c → now 81c (+7%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jun 06 → Aug 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 06BUYYES72+$765$765 Aug 14BUYYES81+$536$1,396 Realized— Unrealized+$99 Total Profit+$99 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1838 trades).

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 45c–76c, NO wallets at 23c–51c. At current price 81c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 81c YES — $6.2M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 81c with $6.2M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 84c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	81c	$6.2M
Our Model	84c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

As of August 2026, Polymarket prices this at 81% YES with $6.2M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

OddsShift tracks 7 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 84c YES. 6 models agree on direction.