Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 70% YES on Polymarket with $2.4M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 6 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 78c YES. 6 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

70c

30c

Prediction markets put the probability at 70%: Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (70% YES).

Up from 63% to 70% since 2026-04-14 (+7pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $2.4M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.4M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 70c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 6/5 AI models agree YES. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money wallets positioned NO, but 6/7 models estimate YES. Signals conflict — waiting for consolidation.

— TARGET YIELD

6 of 7 Models Agree: YES

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	YES	82c	—
MATH PIN Model	YES	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	YES	58c	—
AI Claude Analysis	???	68c	35%
AI DeepSeek Quant	YES	79c	65%
AI Gemini Flash	YES	75c	70%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	79c	75%

6 of 7 models estimate YES fair value above market (58–98c vs 70c). Kimi Macro leads with 75% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 78c — market prices it at 70c. 8-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Is Uncertain: Claude Analysis at 68c — Market at 70% YES on Mojtaba Khamenei succession is structurally plausible (he's been groomed as heir, Assembly of Experts dynamics favor...

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money skew is decisively YES-leaning despite the NO-dominant side label — 5 of 6 tracked wallets accumulated YES across a wide 35c-71c band, signaling sustained conviction rather than a single-price thesis. The willingness to add YES even at 71c (near current price) suggests informed wallets view 70c as undervalued relative to succession probability, not a top.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	MM	YES	$56.2K	+33%
This Market Entered at 51c → now 70c (+33%), $56.2K on YES Activity · 52 events · Mar 08 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 08BUYYES34+$121$121 Mar 09BUYYES31+$552$662 Mar 10BUYYES37+$571$1,349 Mar 10SELLYES39−$209$1,207 Mar 11BUYYES35+$2,291$3,389 Mar 12BUYYES35+$1,600$4,988 Mar 13BUYYES32+$573$5,160 Mar 14BUYYES30+$499$5,255 Mar 14SELLYES31−$77$5,319 Mar 15BUYYES30+$2,088$7,291 Mar 16BUYYES35+$263$8,724 Mar 19BUYYES36+$287$9,316 Mar 20BUYYES35+$357$9,319 Mar 23BUYYES41+$840$11,776 Mar 23SELLYES43−$65$12,371 Mar 24BUYYES43+$4,045$16,453 Mar 25BUYYES48+$1,553$19,894 Mar 26BUYYES51+$4,767$25,819 Mar 27BUYYES43+$304$21,886 Mar 29BUYYES44+$7$22,876 Mar 30BUYYES45+$3,508$26,831 Mar 31BUYYES60+$6,704$42,122 Mar 31SELLYES59−$70$41,553 Apr 01BUYYES64+$419$45,627 Apr 03BUYYES63+$78$44,783 Apr 03SELLYES63−$305$44,478 Apr 04BUYYES61+$277$43,060 Apr 04SELLYES61−$204$43,070 Apr 06BUYYES57+$2,004$42,315 Apr 11BUYYES67+$227$49,959 Apr 13BUYYES60+$313$45,141 Apr 15BUYYES66+$344$49,713 Apr 16BUYYES67+$1,475$52,496 Apr 17BUYYES68+$6,860$59,784 Apr 19SELLYES67−$327$58,929 Apr 20BUYYES66+$2,646$60,334 Apr 21BUYYES62+$125$57,213 Apr 21SELLYES64−$3,617$55,337 Apr 23SELLYES60−$1,822$49,946 Apr 24BUYYES59+$593$49,328 May 03SELLYES66−$6,444$48,981 May 04SELLYES66−$1,382$47,843 May 07BUYYES67+$1,391$49,963 May 08BUYYES66+$131$48,729 May 16BUYYES64+$693$48,536 May 20BUYYES66+$1,774$51,533 May 21SELLYES67−$1,096$51,484 May 23BUYYES66+$313$50,825 May 23SELLYES62−$164$47,889 May 25SELLYES70−$388$53,456 May 26SELLYES70−$2,937$50,069 May 29BUYYES70+$5,480$55,931 Realized+$4,766 Unrealized+$15,243 Total Profit+$20,009 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1240) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	YES	$10.5K	+43%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 42c → now 70c (+43%), $10.5K on YES Activity · 9 events · Mar 16 → May 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 16BUYYES33+$1,039$1,039 Mar 21BUYYES37+$637$1,784 Mar 22BUYYES36+$1,663$3,417 Mar 23BUYYES36+$360$3,777 Mar 26BUYYES53+$2,142$7,702 Apr 03SELLYES64−$570$8,674 Apr 04BUYYES61+$778$9,103 Apr 17BUYYES69+$31$10,377 May 19SELLYES66−$48$9,810 Realized+$227 Unrealized+$4,235 Total Profit+$4,462 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1232) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xfcf2..69	Retail	NO	$6.2K	-58%
This Market Entered at 51c → now 30c (-58%), $6.2K on NO Activity · 12 events · Mar 13 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 13BUYNO67+$1,907$1,907 Mar 14BUYNO71+$399$2,411 Mar 19BUYNO65+$1,430$3,630 Mar 23BUYNO57+$1,878$5,089 Apr 01BUYNO38+$89$3,456 Apr 03BUYNO37+$119$3,491 Apr 04BUYNO38+$361$3,966 Apr 07BUYNO58+$1,811$7,784 Apr 08BUYNO45+$257$6,302 Apr 12BUYNO37+$775$5,962 May 22BUYNO34+$756$6,347 May 23BUYNO37+$976$7,746 Realized— Unrealized−$4,526 Total Profit−$4,526 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$3.9K	+112%
This Market Entered at 35c → now 70c (+112%), $3.9K on YES Activity · 2 events · Mar 08 → Mar 09 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 08BUYYES36+$1,483$1,483 Mar 09BUYYES32+$447$1,777 Realized— Unrealized+$1,981 Total Profit+$1,981 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1040) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$3.1K	+12%
This Market Entered at 62c → now 70c (+12%), $3.1K on YES Activity · 8 events · Mar 08 → May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 08BUYYES24+$70$70 Mar 31BUYYES60+$300$471 Apr 14BUYYES65+$1,090$1,598 Apr 22BUYYES60+$67$1,548 Apr 29BUYYES60+$17$1,566 May 06BUYYES67+$754$2,497 May 07BUYYES67+$286$2,804 May 20BUYYES69+$190$3,063 Realized— Unrealized+$355 Total Profit+$355 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1008) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa8af..5e	MM	YES	$2.2K	0%
This Market Entered at 71c → now 70c (0%), $2.2K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal May 29BUYYES71+$2,211$2,211 Realized— Unrealized−$6 Total Profit−$6 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1436) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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80% of YES Positions Are in Profit

YES holders are sitting comfortably with 80% in profit after entries ranging 35c-71c against the current 70c mark, while the lone NO position entered at 51c is underwater by ~19c. The asymmetric P&L distribution means YES has minimal forced-selling pressure, while the NO side lacks conviction reinforcement to defend lower prices.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

80% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 70c YES — $2.4M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 70c with $2.4M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 78c. 8-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	70c	$2.4M
Our Model	78c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 70% YES with $2.4M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

OddsShift tracks 6 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 78c YES. 6 models agree on direction.