How did 'Iran closes its airspace by May 15?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 16, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 16, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $3.4M

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

Resolved · MAY 16

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 6 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	3c	94%
Compound Signal	NO	27c	46%
Claude Analysis	NO	7c	88%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	82%
Gemini Flash	NO	25c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	10c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 13c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is overwhelmingly positioned NO at 84-94c, signaling deep conviction that Iran will not close its airspace by May 15. The thin YES book at 8c reads as cheap optionality rather than directional thesis, leaving NO as the dominant smart-money read and 10c as a fading tail bet.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$27.9K	-4%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 50c (-4%), $27.9K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 11 DatePositionAmountTotal May 11BUYNO94+$28,977$28,977 Realized— Unrealized−$1,058 Total Profit−$1,058 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1966) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$6.6K	+15%
This Market Entered at 8c → now 50c (+15%), $6.6K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 11 DatePositionAmountTotal May 11BUYYES8+$5,752$5,750 Realized— Unrealized+$838 Total Profit+$838 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (743) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	NO	$6.3K	+8%
This Market Entered at 84c → now 50c (+8%), $6.3K on NO Activity · 4 events · May 05 → May 11 DatePositionAmountTotal May 05BUYNO74+$1,480$1,480 May 07BUYNO77+$768$2,304 May 08SELLNO83−$830$1,660 May 11BUYNO90+$4,500$6,300 Realized+$81 Unrealized+$431 Total Profit+$511 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1228) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90	MM	NO	$5.2K	+4%
This Market Entered at 87c → now 50c (+4%), $5.2K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYNO87+$5,000$5,000 Realized— Unrealized+$201 Total Profit+$201 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (132) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$3.2K	+1%
This Market Entered at 90c → now 50c (+1%), $3.2K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 11 DatePositionAmountTotal May 11BUYNO90+$3,136$3,136 Realized— Unrealized+$30 Total Profit+$30 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1664) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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87% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,467 on $49.2K capital deployed (avg -5.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

87% in profit

YES positions

13% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	10c	$3.4M	0c
AI Consensus	13c	—	✓ matched

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