How did 'Iran leadership change by June 30?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jul 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $4.4M

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Resolved · JUL 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (4 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	4c	92%
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	16c	68%
Claude Analysis	NO	5c	82%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	5c	78%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	7c	93%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

All three tracked wallets positioned NO at high conviction prices (77c-87c), signaling early belief that Khamenei remains in place through June 30. Smart money entered when the market still priced meaningful regime-change risk and has been validated as that premium collapsed to 7c — consistent with a structural NO thesis rather than a tactical fade.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$17.4K	+2%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 92c → now 50c (+2%), $17.4K on NO Activity · 18 events · Apr 01 → Jun 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 01BUYNO79+$409$409 Apr 17BUYNO86+$955$1,402 Apr 21BUYNO83+$50$1,403 Apr 28BUYNO78+$181$1,500 May 01BUYNO84+$429$2,044 May 04BUYNO82+$207$2,201 May 05BUYNO84+$1,303$3,570 May 07BUYNO91+$596$4,444 May 09BUYNO90+$100$4,495 May 29BUYNO93+$1,880$6,524 Jun 02BUYNO96+$3,840$10,575 Jun 03BUYNO96+$1,326$11,878 Jun 04BUYNO96+$10$11,864 Jun 06BUYNO96+$1,364$13,278 Jun 07BUYNO95+$1,312$14,390 Jun 08BUYNO95+$2,984$17,433 Jun 09BUYNO96+$19$17,554 Jun 10BUYNO94+$126$17,363 Realized— Unrealized+$334 Total Profit+$334 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1850 trades).
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$4.9K	+10%
This Market Entered at 85c → now 50c (+10%), $4.9K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 17 → May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYNO85+$4,661$4,661 May 26SELLNO91−$238$4,753 Realized+$16 Unrealized+$475 Total Profit+$491 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1854) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x69aa..47	MM	NO	$3.0K	-2%
This Market Entered at 96c → now 50c (-2%), $3.0K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jun 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 07BUYNO96+$3,034$3,034 Realized— Unrealized−$63 Total Profit−$63 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1268) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$1.5K	-2%
This Market Entered at 96c → now 50c (-2%), $1.5K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jun 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 06BUYNO96+$1,571$1,571 Realized— Unrealized−$30 Total Profit−$30 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1256) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$1.5K	+14%
This Market Entered at 81c → now 50c (+14%), $1.5K on NO Activity · 4 events · Apr 07 → Jun 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 07BUYNO67+$446$446 May 07BUYNO90+$450$1,049 Jun 04BUYNO96+$29$1,152 Jun 08BUYNO93+$348$1,464 Realized— Unrealized+$203 Total Profit+$203 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (976) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,850 on $28.3K capital deployed (avg +10.1%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$4.4M	0c
AI Consensus	8c	—	✓ matched

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