Iran leadership change by June 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran leadership change by June 30?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 22% YES on Polymarket with $432K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Iran leadership change by June 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

78c

YES

22c

Prediction markets give a 22% probability to: iran leadership change by june 30?.

Currently at 22%

Traded on Polymarket — $432K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 22c YES with $432K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 21c

Smart money entered YES at 37c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 37c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x44c1..c1	Retail	YES	$3.9K	-41%
This Market Entered at 37c → now 22c (-41%), $3.9K on YES Track Record 7d on platform AI Insight Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.

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No Positions Are Currently in Profit

YES wallets entered between 37c. At current price 22c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 22c YES — $432K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 22c with $432K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 22c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	22c	$432K
Our Model	22c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by June 30??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 22% YES with $432K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran leadership change by June 30??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran leadership change by June 30??

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.