Iran leadership change by June 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran leadership change by June 30?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 6% YES on Polymarket with $1.6M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Iran leadership change by June 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Iran leadership change by June 30?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 7c YES. 7 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

94c

YES

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Iran leadership change by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Down from 22% to 6% since 2026-04-14 (-16pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $1.6M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.6M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 6c YES.

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On this market: 7/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 7c vs market 6c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 6c.

— TARGET YIELD

7 of 7 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	NO	96c	—
MATH PIN Model	NO	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	85c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	96c	88%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	95c	85%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	90c	70%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	93c	90%

7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (85–98c vs 94c). Kimi Macro leads with 90% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 93c — market prices it at 94c. 1-point gap supports YES.

3 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money built the NO book at premium prices (77c-87c) when the question still carried headline risk, signaling conviction that Iran's leadership transition wouldn't resolve by June 30. The absence of any tracked YES entry is the louder signal: no alpha wallet has stepped in even at 6c, implying the residual 6% is retail tail-risk pricing, not a contrarian smart-money bid.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$6.6K	+7%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 87c → now 94c (+7%), $6.6K on NO Activity · 10 events · Apr 01 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 01BUYNO79+$409$409 Apr 17BUYNO86+$955$1,402 Apr 21BUYNO83+$50$1,403 Apr 28BUYNO78+$181$1,500 May 01BUYNO84+$429$2,044 May 04BUYNO82+$207$2,201 May 05BUYNO84+$1,303$3,570 May 07BUYNO91+$596$4,444 May 09BUYNO90+$100$4,495 May 29BUYNO93+$1,880$6,524 Realized— Unrealized+$450 Total Profit+$450 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1828 trades).
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$4.9K	+10%
This Market Entered at 85c → now 94c (+10%), $4.9K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 17 → May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYNO85+$4,661$4,661 May 26SELLNO91−$238$4,753 Realized+$16 Unrealized+$444 Total Profit+$460 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1870) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$1.1K	+18%
This Market Entered at 77c → now 94c (+18%), $1.1K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 07 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 07BUYNO67+$446$446 May 07BUYNO90+$450$1,049 Realized— Unrealized+$194 Total Profit+$194 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1008) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

All three tracked wallets sit on the NO side with entries between 77c-87c, now deep in profit as YES collapsed to 6c. Zero YES exposure means no tracked capital is underwater, and the lopsided P&L removes any incentive for NO holders to defend lower — they can ride to expiry without adding. Price support for YES is effectively absent from smart money.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 6c YES — $1.6M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $1.6M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 7c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	6c	$1.6M
Our Model	7c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by June 30?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $1.6M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran leadership change by June 30?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran leadership change by June 30?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Iran leadership change by June 30?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 7c YES. 7 models agree on direction.