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Resolved: Jun 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $3.4M

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Resolved · JUN 01
NO
100c
YES
0c
Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.
MODERATE RESULT
NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

DIRECTION MATCHED
53c
95c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
Bayesian Update NO 3c
94%
PIN Model NO 2c
96%
Compound Signal NO 15c
70%
DeepSeek Quant NO 5c
85%
Gemini Flash NO 12c
75%
Kimi Macro NO 7c
93%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 7 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 5 market makers are providing $30K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 82c–91c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x5cd5..33 RetailNO$17.7K+3%
0x69aa..47MMNO$15.4K+4%
0xd48a..90MMNO$6.5K+11%
0x162f..8dMMNO$5.4K+8%
0x2615..6dRetailNO$3.5K+9%
0xbacd..35MMYES$1.7K-42%
0x0845..6fMMNO$1.2K+13%
See all 87 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

97% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$4,622 on $51.6K capital deployed (avg +9.0%).

NO positions
97% in profit
YES positions
3% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 6c $3.4M 0c
AI Consensus 7c ✓ matched