Iran leadership change by September 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Iran leadership change by September 30?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 10% YES on Polymarket with $192K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Iran leadership change by September 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

90c

YES

10c

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Iran leadership change by September 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

Currently at 10%

Traded on Polymarket — $192K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 10c YES with $192K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 90c

Smart money entered NO at 87c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 87c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$4.7K	+3%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 87c → now 90c (+3%), $4.7K on NO Activity · 5 events · Jul 04 → Jul 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 04BUYNO91+$23$23 Jul 05BUYNO92+$102$125 Jul 15BUYNO87+$298$417 Jul 16BUYNO87+$4,002$4,419 Jul 20BUYNO87+$140$4,559 Realized— Unrealized+$151 Total Profit+$151 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1830 trades).

See all 87 alpha wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 87c. At current price 10c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 10c YES — $192K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 10c with $192K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	10c	$192K
Our Model	10c	—

Back to Market Radar

Related Markets

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by September 30?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 10% YES with $192K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran leadership change by September 30?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran leadership change by September 30?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.