Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 59% YES on Polymarket with $243K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

59c

41c

Prediction markets give a 59% probability to: israel x hezbollah ceasefire by june 30, 2026?.

Currently at 59%

Traded on Polymarket — $243K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 59c YES with $243K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

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BUY YES 59c

Smart money entered YES at 48c. 100% of YES wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 48c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$1.4K	+24%
This Market Entered at 48c → now 59c (+24%), $1.4K on YES Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 48c. At current price 59c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 59c YES — $243K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 59c with $243K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 59c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	59c	$243K
Our Model	59c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 59% YES with $243K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026??

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.