Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 54% YES on Polymarket with $576K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

54c

46c

Prediction markets put the probability at 54%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31. Currently, markets are divided (54% YES, 46% NO). Live Updates Mediators Propose 10-day Cease-fire to Revive Iran-U.S.

Currently at 54%

Traded on Polymarket — $576K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 54c YES with $576K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 46c

Smart money positioned NO.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$1.6K	-11%
This Market Entered at 60c → now 54c (-11%), $1.6K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jul 21 → Jul 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 21BUYYES65+$8$8 Jul 23BUYYES60+$1,803$1,811 Realized— Unrealized−$200 Total Profit−$200 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (460) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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No Positions Are Currently in Profit

YES wallets entered between 60c. At current price 54c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 54c YES — $576K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 54c with $576K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 54c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	54c	$576K
Our Model	54c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 54% YES with $576K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.