Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jul 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $8.5M

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Q: How did 'Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	16c	68%
Compound Signal	NO	28c	44%
Claude Analysis	NO	18c	65%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	75%
Kimi Macro	NO	10c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 16c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Tracked smart money is positioned overwhelmingly against a permanent peace deal, with NO entries near 86c reflecting high conviction the market would collapse — which it has. The lone YES entry at 15c looks like cheap-optionality tail-risk, not directional belief. Signal points to continued decay toward resolution NO.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x44c1..c1	MM	NO	$44.9K	+8%
This Market Entered at 88c → now 50c (+8%), $44.9K on NO Activity · 3 events · Jun 15 → Jun 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 15BUYNO87+$31,444$31,442 Jun 17BUYNO88+$11,648$43,309 Jun 18SELLNO92−$1,669$43,653 Realized+$82 Unrealized+$3,362 Total Profit+$3,444 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1778) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$17.9K	-67%
This Market Entered at 14c → now 50c (-67%), $17.9K on YES Activity · 8 events · May 26 → Jun 17 DatePositionAmountTotal May 26BUYYES17+$31,173$31,172 May 27BUYYES19+$11$34,578 May 29BUYYES15+$8,478$36,027 Jun 02BUYYES7+$1,520$19,062 Jun 03BUYYES6+$1,407$18,162 Jun 15BUYYES13+$7,590$43,633 Jun 16SELLYES14−$3,515$45,003 Jun 17BUYYES10+$1,567$32,751 Realized−$120 Unrealized−$30,230 Total Profit−$30,350 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1944) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$7.0K	+5%
This Market Entered at 86c → now 50c (+5%), $7.0K on NO Activity · 5 events · May 16 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal May 16BUYNO85+$10,854$10,853 May 17BUYNO87+$3,261$14,329 May 18SELLNO87−$2,901$11,429 May 20SELLNO85−$4,696$6,521 May 29SELLNO85−$197$6,324 Realized+$26 Unrealized+$663 Total Profit+$689 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1064) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	MM	NO	$2.3K	+4%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 91c → now 50c (+4%), $2.3K on NO Activity · 2 events · Jun 18 → Jun 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 18BUYNO91+$1,891$1,891 Jun 19BUYNO93+$328$2,257 Realized— Unrealized+$81 Total Profit+$81 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1804) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

75% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$10,172 on $72.1K capital deployed (avg -14.1%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

75% in profit

YES positions

25% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	5c	$8.5M	0c
AI Consensus	16c	—	✓ matched

Back to Market Radar