Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 16% YES on Polymarket with $627K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

84c

YES

16c

Prediction markets give a 16% probability to: kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 30?.

Currently at 16%

Traded on Polymarket — $627K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 16c YES with $627K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

Smart money signal: 3 tracked wallets positioned YES with 5.2x conviction. Backed by $627K in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 17c

Smart money entered YES at 19c–30c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

3 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 19c–30c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x4e25..a7	Retail	YES	$5.4K	-45%
This Market Entered at 30c → now 16c (-45%), $5.4K on YES Track Record 6d on platform AI Insight Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$3.5K	-13%
This Market Entered at 19c → now 16c (-13%), $3.5K on YES Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33	Retail	NO	$2.1K	+19%
This Market Entered at 70c → now 84c (+19%), $2.1K on NO Track Record 12d on platform AI Insight Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 19c–30c, NO wallets at 70c. At current price 16c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 16c YES — $627K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 16c with $627K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 16c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	16c	$627K
Our Model	16c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 16% YES with $627K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30??

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.