How did 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 09, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 09, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $14.5M

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Resolved · MAY 09

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (7 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

STRONG RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction (7 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.

Stop Loss Target Final

1 of 6 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	31c	38%
Compound Signal	NO	35c	30%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	22c	78%
Grok Contrarian	YES	40c	60%
Gemini Flash	NO	28c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	74c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 38c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

7 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 7 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 7 market makers are providing $138K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 49c–69c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$64.4K	-16%
This Market Entered at 31c → now 50c (-16%), $64.4K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 29 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 29BUYYES28+$44,961$44,960 May 08BUYYES36+$34,114$91,962 Realized— Unrealized−$14,652 Total Profit−$14,652 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (725) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$38.7K	+7%
This Market Entered at 62c → now 50c (+7%), $38.7K on NO Activity · 18 events · Oct 22 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 22BUYNO53+$118$118 Nov 21BUYNO43+$108$203 Nov 22BUYNO46+$3,862$4,079 Nov 23BUYNO48+$2,911$7,159 Nov 26BUYNO47+$3,215$10,171 Dec 01BUYNO46+$51$10,082 Dec 02BUYNO48+$644$11,127 Feb 11BUYNO57+$6,333$19,593 Feb 13BUYNO57+$492$20,085 Feb 14BUYNO57+$1,335$21,421 Feb 17BUYNO59+$1,311$23,483 Feb 18BUYNO59+$16,620$40,206 Feb 22BUYNO62+$17,765$59,830 Mar 16BUYNO62+$14,766$74,596 Mar 21BUYNO66+$4,435$83,843 Apr 21BUYNO74+$4,111$98,117 Apr 26BUYNO71+$3,155$97,294 May 08BUYNO49+$5,575$72,680 Realized— Unrealized+$6,638 Total Profit+$6,638 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1972) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$14.9K	-42%
This Market Entered at 49c → now 50c (-42%), $14.9K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 01 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 01BUYYES27+$1,105$1,105 Apr 29BUYYES28+$2,800$3,946 May 08BUYYES56+$24,728$32,602 Realized— Unrealized−$13,751 Total Profit−$13,751 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1768) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd5cc..a4	MM	YES	$10.1K	-33%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 50c (-33%), $10.1K on YES Activity · 5 events · Jul 28 → Nov 21 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 28BUYYES50+$5,533$5,533 Jul 31SELLYES50−$6,000$0 Aug 06BUYYES56+$22,276$22,276 Nov 19BUYYES49+$14,199$33,782 Nov 21SELLYES51−$14,566$20,584 Realized−$549 Unrealized−$10,645 Total Profit−$11,193 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1368) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	NO	$4.7K	+28%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 50c (+28%), $4.7K on NO Activity · 4 events · Aug 06 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 06SELLNO43−$105$0 Sep 23BUYNO56+$4,968$4,968 Sep 26SELLNO56−$3,405$1,523 May 08BUYNO52+$3,272$4,687 Realized−$27 Unrealized+$1,416 Total Profit+$1,389 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1208) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x843a..70	MM	NO	$3.0K	+52%
This Market Entered at 49c → now 50c (+52%), $3.0K on NO Activity · 1 event · Aug 03 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 03BUYNO49+$1,960$1,960 Realized— Unrealized+$1,020 Total Profit+$1,020 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1406) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90	MM	NO	$2.2K	+5%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 50c (+5%), $2.2K on NO Activity · 2 events · Jan 21 → Apr 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 21BUYNO59+$1,000$1,000 Apr 10BUYNO69+$2,000$3,169 Realized— Unrealized+$159 Total Profit+$159 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (132) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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65% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$117,468 on $137.9K capital deployed (avg +85.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

65% in profit

NO positions

35% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	26c	$14.5M	100c
AI Consensus	38c	—	× missed

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