Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 10% YES on Polymarket with $5.9M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

90c

YES

10c

Prediction markets give a 10% probability to: russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30, 2026?.

Currently at 10%

Traded on Polymarket — $5.9M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $5.9M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 10c YES.

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Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

Smart money signal: 3 tracked wallets positioned NO with 0.4x conviction. Backed by $5.9M in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 90c

Smart money entered NO at 76c–79c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $74K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 76c–79c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$33.9K	+13%
This Market Entered at 79c → now 90c (+13%), $33.9K on NO Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$20.1K	+17%
This Market Entered at 9c → now 10c (+17%), $20.1K on YES Track Record 1y on platform · 1812 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1812) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$20.0K	+18%
This Market Entered at 76c → now 90c (+18%), $20.0K on NO Track Record 1mo on platform · 1330 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1330) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 9c, NO wallets at 76c–79c. At current price 10c, all NO holders are profitable vs all YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 10c YES — $5.9M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 10c with $5.9M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	10c	$5.9M
Our Model	10c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 10% YES with $5.9M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026??

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.