How did 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 09, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 09, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $60.7M

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Resolved · MAY 09

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (5 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.

Stop Loss Target Final

1 of 6 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	4c	92%
Compound Signal	NO	26c	48%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	85%
Grok Contrarian	YES	18c	60%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	8c	92%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 13c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 5 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 5 market makers are providing $85K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 76c–89c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$41.2K	+3%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (+3%), $41.2K on NO Activity · 11 events · Feb 05 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Feb 05BUYNO77+$2,566$2,566 Feb 10BUYNO77+$7,699$10,266 Feb 15BUYNO77+$9,285$19,551 Feb 16BUYNO77+$2,261$21,812 Feb 17BUYNO77+$1,796$23,608 Feb 18BUYNO82+$317$25,458 Feb 22BUYNO82+$5,466$30,925 Feb 23BUYNO82+$4,920$35,845 Mar 16BUYNO82+$2,876$38,861 May 04BUYNO89+$35,600$77,614 May 07BUYNO92+$559$80,790 Realized— Unrealized+$2,200 Total Profit+$2,200 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$18.7K	+23%
This Market Entered at 76c → now 50c (+23%), $18.7K on NO Activity · 1 event · Feb 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Feb 14BUYNO76+$15,200$15,200 Realized— Unrealized+$3,500 Total Profit+$3,500 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1330) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$16.4K	-27%
This Market Entered at 9c → now 50c (-27%), $16.4K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 09 → Apr 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 09BUYYES13+$3,686$3,686 Apr 29BUYYES8+$18,084$20,308 Realized— Unrealized−$5,413 Total Profit−$5,413 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (705) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$5.0K	-31%
This Market Entered at 9c → now 50c (-31%), $5.0K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 01 → Apr 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 01BUYYES9+$1,809$1,809 Apr 29BUYYES10+$5,501$7,437 Realized— Unrealized−$2,296 Total Profit−$2,296 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1774) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$3.8K	+5%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (+5%), $3.8K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 11BUYNO89+$3,591$3,591 Realized— Unrealized+$182 Total Profit+$182 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1546) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 90 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

25% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$156,917 on $85.1K capital deployed (avg +184.4%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

25% in profit

NO positions

75% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$60.7M	100c
AI Consensus	13c	—	× missed

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