As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?” at 18% YES with $2.7M traded. 4 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Pakistan's PM announced a US-mediated truce, yet traders give just 16% odds Washington formally ends the Iranian blockade by Sept 30.
The market tracks whether the us announces end of iranian blockade before September 30, 2026. Washington reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian shipping in July 2026, reversing the ceasefire arrangement that President Donald Trump had announced on May 29 via Truth Social and that was formalized in a memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on June 14. That earlier deal had lifted the blockade of vessels docking at Iranian ports and eased restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, but the truce collapsed within weeks. Traders on Myriad put the odds of Washington announcing an end to the reimposed blockade at 6% by August 31, 43% by end-September, and 76% by year-end. [Decrypt, Aug 25]
Hawks in Washington argue the blockade is the primary leverage forcing Tehran back to the table, and U.S. Central Command — which announced the original closure of all Iranian ports in April after ceasefire talks failed — has signaled it will hold the line until Iran meets Trump's stated demands. Analysts caution that a near-term reversal is unlikely absent a fresh diplomatic breakthrough, noting that the first collapsed deal took months to negotiate. The question of when the us announces end of iranian blockade therefore hinges less on battlefield conditions than on whether mediators can revive the framework. [Britannica, Sep 03]
Comparable Polymarket contracts price August 31 at just 1%, September 30 at 22%, and December 31 as the first date crossing the halfway threshold at 59%, reflecting a base case in which any lifting slips past the third quarter. The structural factor determining resolution is diplomatic: a signed successor to the June memorandum, including renewed guarantees on Hormuz access, is the only path to an early announcement. Until mediators restore that channel, whether the us announces end of iranian blockade by September 30 remains the low-probability outcome. [DW, May 28]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 17c vs market 18c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 93c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 69c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 88c | 70% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 80% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (69–93c vs 82c). Gemini Flash leads with 80% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 83c — market prices it at 82c. 1-point gap supports NO.
Smart money is heavily positioned on NO, with entries spanning a wide range (13c-65c), suggesting conviction across different price points and accumulation over time. The lack of any profitable YES entries implies informed traders have consistently favored the NO outcome, signaling bearish sentiment on the blockade ending by the deadline. This positioning indicates that the market's 18c YES price may still be too high relative to informed expectations, with NO likely to remain the favored direction.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x551e..e0 | MM | NO | $17.8K | +190% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $3.5K | +104% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | YES | $2.9K | -35% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $1.1K | +22% |
All tracked YES holders are underwater, with entries at 62c against a current price of 18c, indicating significant unrealized losses and no profit-taking pressure. Conversely, 100% of NO holders are in profit, with entries ranging from 13c to 65c, creating a strong incentive to hold or add, which supports the NO side and caps upside for YES. The dominance of profitable NO positions suggests price resistance near current levels unless new catalysts emerge.
Polymarket prices YES at 18c with $2.7M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 17c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18c | $2.7M |
| Our Model | 17c | — |