AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 7c |
86%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 5c |
90%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 28c |
44%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 9c |
82%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
82%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
All four tracked wallets are positioned on the NO side, with entries ranging from 13c to 91c, signaling broad conviction that no blockade-ending announcement will occur by September 30, 2026. The 13c NO entry is particularly notable as it sits just above the current YES price, implying a trader willing to fade any upside at the market. This one-sided smart-money alignment points to continued downward pressure on YES toward single digits.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x551e..e0 | MM | NO | $19.1K | +211% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $5.2K | -2% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $3.7K | +111% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $2.2K | -28% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$70,096 on $30.1K capital deployed (avg +232.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $5.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |