US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?'?

As of June 2026, prediction markets price this at 22% YES on Polymarket with $154K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

78c

YES

22c

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES). Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter PlanetAll World News.

Price has been stable at 22% since 2026-06-22

Traded on Polymarket — $154K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 22c YES with $154K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 79c

Smart money positioned NO.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$18.3K	+15%
This Market Entered at 19c → now 22c (+15%), $18.3K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 22BUYYES19+$15,959$15,957 Realized— Unrealized+$2,339 Total Profit+$2,339 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1568) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 19c. At current price 22c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 22c YES — $154K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 22c with $154K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 22c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	22c	$154K
Our Model	22c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

As of June 2026, Polymarket prices this at 22% YES with $154K in total volume.

Where can I bet on US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.