AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 5c |
90%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 16c |
68%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
All six tracked wallets are effectively aligned against a final nuclear deal, with NO entries at 79c-86c now validated by the 8c mark. Smart money is pricing this as a near-certain fail — YES buyers who nibbled at 9c-19c are being run over, signaling the deadline is too tight for a completed agreement and directional conviction sits firmly on NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | Retail | NO | $253.7K | +6% | |
| 0x2e0b..70 | Retail | NO | $44.6K | +1% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $8.9K | +12% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | YES | $4.3K | -74% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $3.0K | +15% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $2.0K | +17% | |
| 0xc658..84 | MM | YES | $1.3K | -44% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$30,929 on $317.9K capital deployed (avg +9.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $2.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 7c | — | ✓ matched |