AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 28c |
44%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 29c |
42%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 14c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 18c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
One tracked wallet at 10c YES signals opportunistic long-tail convexity buying, not conviction on a peace deal landing by June 30. The dominant-side NO label with zero tracked NO entries means smart money is largely absent from this market; the YES position reads as a cheap lottery ticket rather than directional alpha.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x94eb..e6 | MM | NO | $2.7K | -3% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$82 on $2.7K capital deployed (avg +3.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $3.8M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 18c | — | ✓ matched |