Geopolitics

Resolves: Dec 2026 7 months left Volume: $386K

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 24% YES on Polymarket with $386K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 15c YES. 7 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

76c

YES

24c

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES). Trump says Iran’s enriched uranium would go to US under emerging deal.

Down from 26% to 24% since 2026-05-07 (-2pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $386K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 24c YES with $386K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Last updated: May 08, 2026, 22:06 UTC

On this market: 7/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 76c

7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 15c vs market 24c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 24c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

7 of 7 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	NO	85c	—
MATH PIN Model	NO	93c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	76c	—
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	85c	78%
AI Grok Contrarian	NO	90c	70%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	80c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	85c	65%

7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (76–93c vs 76c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 78% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 76c. 9-point gap supports NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 73c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	NO	$7.0K	+4%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 73c → now 76c (+4%), $7.0K on NO Activity · 7 events · Apr 19 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 19BUYNO70+$17$17 Apr 20BUYNO73+$876$893 Apr 21BUYNO70+$814$1,671 Apr 25BUYNO72+$3,459$5,177 May 01BUYNO74+$1,480$6,801 May 07BUYNO75+$1,504$8,368 May 08SELLNO75−$1,483$6,920 Realized+$45 Unrealized+$255 Total Profit+$300 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1316) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$1.2K	-12%
This Market Entered at 28c → now 24c (-12%), $1.2K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYYES28+$1,400$1,400 Realized— Unrealized−$175 Total Profit−$175 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1212) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 28c, NO wallets at 73c. At current price 24c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 24c YES — $386K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 24c with $386K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 15c. Significant 9-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	24c	$386K
Our Model	15c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 24% YES with $386K in total volume.

Where can I bet on US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 15c YES. 7 models agree on direction.