Geopolitics

Resolves: May 2026 21 days left Volume: $17.6M

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 36% YES on Polymarket with $17.6M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 17 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 55c YES. 4 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

64c

YES

36c

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO). US, Iran ‘getting close’ to agreeing deal to end war after 67 days.

Up from 32% to 36% since 2026-05-07 (+4pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $17.6M Volume

One of the highest-volume markets on Polymarket with $17.6M traded. Deep liquidity means tight spreads — you can enter and exit large positions without significant slippage. Currently priced at 36c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: May 08, 2026, 22:06 UTC

On this market: 4/5 AI models agree YES. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 35c

Majority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. 2 tier-1 wallets aligned with models — BUY YES at 36c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

4 of 7 Models Lean YES

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	YES	51c	—
MATH PIN Model	YES	62c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	55c	—
AI DeepSeek Quant	YES	53c	65%
AI Grok Contrarian	NO	80c	70%
AI Gemini Flash	???	48c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	53c	75%

4 of 7 models estimate YES fair value above market (51–62c vs 36c). Kimi Macro leads with 75% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 55c — market prices it at 36c. 19-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Disagrees: Compound Signal dissents at 45c — Signal score 3 (MODERATE), 55% backtest accuracy on YES side. Blended fair value: 45% YES.

9 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 17 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 9 market makers are providing $127K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 18c–52c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc658..84	Retail	YES	$96.3K	-12%
This Market Entered at 41c → now 36c (-12%), $96.3K on YES Activity · 10 events · Apr 15 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 15BUYYES60+$21,686$21,685 Apr 16BUYYES53+$8,878$28,115 Apr 16SELLYES61−$21,833$10,182 Apr 17SELLYES68−$11,345$0 Apr 20BUYYES62+$5,167$5,167 Apr 21BUYYES57+$2,650$7,396 Apr 22BUYYES45+$5,733$11,516 Apr 23BUYYES38+$6,844$16,662 Apr 24BUYYES39+$18,674$35,983 May 07BUYYES34+$61,838$93,128 Realized+$2,615 Unrealized−$13,753 Total Profit−$11,138 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0xbacd..35	Retail	NO	$63.7K	+14%
This Market Entered at 55c → now 64c (+14%), $63.7K on NO Activity · 8 events · Apr 16 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYNO45+$324$324 Apr 17BUYNO45+$8,737$9,061 Apr 19BUYNO39+$2,656$10,504 Apr 21BUYNO43+$10,048$21,418 Apr 23BUYNO65+$63$32,758 May 06BUYNO70+$18,843$53,969 May 07BUYNO61+$4,921$52,153 May 08BUYNO66+$8,800$65,227 Realized— Unrealized+$9,355 Total Profit+$9,355 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x44c1..c1	MM	YES	$56.8K	+13%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 36c (+13%), $56.8K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 28 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 28BUYYES29+$77,997$77,997 Apr 28SELLYES29−$31,610$46,387 Realized— Unrealized+$10,397 Total Profit+$10,397 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1710) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	Retail	YES	$52.2K	+30%
This Market Entered at 24c → now 36c (+30%), $52.2K on YES Activity · 6 events · Apr 24 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 24BUYYES37+$2,634$2,634 Apr 30BUYYES19+$18,102$19,445 May 06BUYYES21+$27,261$48,506 May 07BUYYES41+$16,353$111,744 May 07SELLYES34−$54,951$37,849 May 08BUYYES31+$10,779$45,542 Realized+$16,843 Unrealized+$16,533 Total Profit+$33,375 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$18.6K	+7%
This Market Entered at 32c → now 36c (+7%), $18.6K on YES Activity · 7 events · Apr 14 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 14BUYYES46+$2,492$2,492 Apr 17BUYYES64+$838$4,290 Apr 21BUYYES57+$4,702$8,514 Apr 25BUYYES28+$3,944$8,135 May 05BUYYES13+$2,600$6,377 May 07BUYYES46+$3,893$26,458 May 07SELLYES35−$1,750$18,381 Realized+$145 Unrealized+$1,780 Total Profit+$1,925 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (323) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	Retail	YES	$18.5K	+18%
This Market Entered at 30c → now 36c (+18%), $18.5K on YES Activity · 19 events · Apr 16 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYYES49+$1,466$1,466 Apr 16SELLYES53−$1,317$257 Apr 17SELLYES70−$1,689$0 Apr 18BUYYES61+$491$491 Apr 19BUYYES60+$1,200$1,681 Apr 22BUYYES44+$2,188$3,427 Apr 22SELLYES48−$1,166$2,537 Apr 23BUYYES33+$3,300$5,052 Apr 23SELLYES38−$560$5,257 Apr 24BUYYES32+$998$5,479 Apr 25BUYYES27+$1,350$5,917 May 01BUYYES23+$920$5,961 May 04BUYYES14+$2,075$5,750 May 05BUYYES15+$1,667$7,749 May 06SELLYES29−$380$14,602 May 07BUYYES34+$2,628$19,974 May 07SELLYES32−$3,202$15,363 May 08BUYYES36+$9,200$26,333 May 08SELLYES34−$6,706$18,211 Realized+$1,808 Unrealized+$2,914 Total Profit+$4,722 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0xd1ac..d5	Retail	YES	$14.0K	+49%
This Market Entered at 18c → now 36c (+49%), $14.0K on YES Activity · 4 events · May 05 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal May 05BUYYES17+$15,243$15,244 May 05SELLYES19−$8,691$7,737 May 07BUYYES40+$568$17,055 May 07SELLYES40−$1,281$15,774 Realized+$1,325 Unrealized+$6,988 Total Profit+$8,313 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$12.4K	-30%
This Market Entered at 43c → now 36c (-30%), $12.4K on YES Activity · 14 events · Apr 15 → May 05 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 15BUYYES60+$667$667 Apr 16BUYYES55+$7,156$7,763 Apr 16SELLYES57−$749$7,348 Apr 17BUYYES70+$441$9,465 Apr 19BUYYES63+$3,384$11,926 Apr 21BUYYES58+$3,918$14,878 Apr 21SELLYES59−$936$14,183 Apr 22BUYYES46+$591$11,649 Apr 24SELLYES32−$617$7,378 Apr 25BUYYES27+$1,018$7,328 May 01BUYYES19+$1,630$6,787 May 01SELLYES21−$286$7,216 May 03BUYYES18+$900$7,085 May 05SELLYES20−$888$6,984 Realized−$1,740 Unrealized−$2,701 Total Profit−$4,441 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1662) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6bab..92 ★ +66%	MM	YES	$11.5K	+0%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 36c → now 36c (+0%), $11.5K on YES ↑ Position grew +66% since last snapshot Activity · 3 events · May 07 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal May 07BUYYES36+$7,883$7,882 May 07SELLYES41−$883$8,035 May 08BUYYES35+$4,502$11,355 Realized+$102 Unrealized−$88 Total Profit+$15 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1718) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$10.4K	+52%
This Market Entered at 35c → now 64c (+52%), $10.4K on NO Activity · 11 events · Apr 16 → Apr 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYNO52+$175$175 Apr 17BUYNO28+$4,151$4,245 Apr 17SELLNO24−$828$2,820 Apr 18BUYNO40+$3,132$7,798 Apr 18SELLNO39−$604$7,053 Apr 19BUYNO42+$3,020$10,562 Apr 19SELLNO41−$4,722$5,784 Apr 20BUYNO39+$931$6,336 Apr 20SELLNO40−$13$6,526 Apr 21BUYNO41+$65$6,755 Apr 24SELLNO65−$232$10,404 Realized+$727 Unrealized+$4,772 Total Profit+$5,498 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1334) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd039..32	MM	YES	$7.7K	+26%
This Market Entered at 27c → now 36c (+26%), $7.7K on YES Activity · 4 events · Apr 24 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 24BUYYES27+$5,380$5,380 May 03BUYYES21+$840$5,025 May 06BUYYES34+$1,391$9,526 May 07SELLYES38−$2,380$8,362 Realized+$694 Unrealized+$1,818 Total Profit+$2,512 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1282) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$4.4K	+4%
This Market Entered at 32c → now 36c (+4%), $4.4K on YES Activity · 7 events · Apr 13 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 13BUYYES34+$412$412 Apr 20BUYYES65+$307$1,094 Apr 22SELLYES49−$147$678 May 05SELLYES22−$38$267 May 06BUYYES28+$3,582$3,916 May 06SELLYES24−$1,088$2,263 May 07BUYYES45+$1,232$5,553 Realized−$259 Unrealized+$463 Total Profit+$203 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1092) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	YES	$3.0K	+119%
This Market Entered at 18c → now 36c (+119%), $3.0K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 03 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal May 03BUYYES18+$4,600$4,600 May 07SELLYES43−$7,070$3,642 Realized+$4,034 Unrealized+$1,454 Total Profit+$5,488 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1536) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe	Retail	YES	$2.2K	-32%
This Market Entered at 50c → now 36c (-32%), $2.2K on YES Activity · 13 events · Apr 15 → May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 15BUYYES60+$600$600 Apr 17BUYYES54+$1,514$2,059 Apr 18SELLYES59−$1,180$1,050 Apr 19BUYYES59+$590$1,640 Apr 20BUYYES66+$655$2,476 Apr 21BUYYES61+$1,945$4,251 Apr 21SELLYES58−$1,957$2,118 Apr 22BUYYES45+$654$2,293 Apr 22SELLYES45−$270$2,010 Apr 23BUYYES34+$923$2,420 Apr 23SELLYES37−$555$2,117 Apr 24BUYYES34+$517$2,469 May 06SELLYES23−$252$1,412 Realized−$448 Unrealized−$914 Total Profit−$1,362 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1588 trades).
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	YES	$1.9K	+59%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 19c → now 36c (+59%), $1.9K on YES Activity · 6 events · Apr 28 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 28SELLYES29−$290$0 Apr 30BUYYES20+$1,193$1,193 May 05BUYYES13+$650$1,426 May 06SELLYES25−$873$1,873 May 07BUYYES32+$640$3,033 May 07SELLYES40−$1,221$2,595 Realized+$901 Unrealized+$890 Total Profit+$1,791 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1316) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xe25b..1b	Retail	YES	$1.4K	-1%
This Market Entered at 36c → now 36c (-1%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · Apr 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 14BUYYES36+$1,448$1,448 Realized— Unrealized−$20 Total Profit−$20 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0xb8e6..67	Retail	YES	$1.4K	-30%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 36c (-30%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 5 events · Apr 11 → Apr 21 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 11BUYYES46+$118$118 Apr 14BUYYES45+$22$137 Apr 15BUYYES52+$33$191 Apr 16BUYYES51+$1,210$1,398 Apr 21BUYYES55+$652$2,157 Realized— Unrealized−$642 Total Profit−$642 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 18c–52c, NO wallets at 35c–55c. At current price 36c, all NO holders are profitable vs 60% of YES holders are profitable. NO side has the profitability advantage.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

60% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 36c YES — $17.6M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 36c with $17.6M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 55c. Significant 19-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	36c	$17.6M
Our Model	55c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 36% YES with $17.6M in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 17 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 55c YES. 4 models agree on direction.