Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). Iran's enriched uranium under US surveillance, will be extracted 'at some point', Trump says.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday, May 10 that Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is under US surveillance and will be extracted "at some point," warning that any attempt to access the site would trigger a military response. The statement, made in an interview with Full Measure, followed Trump's earlier May 6 remarks that the prospect of the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium had moved from possibility to part of an emerging framework, with Israeli officials saying Tehran had agreed to remove its 60% enriched stockpile, halt enrichment for 15 years, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has not publicly confirmed the terms. [Jerusalem Post, May 10]
According to the Wall Street Journal on May 8, Washington and Tehran are working with mediators on a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that would set parameters for a 30-day negotiation window. The draft calls for Iran to ease its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz while the US winds back its blockade of Iranian ports; the removal of enriched uranium is among the items under discussion but not finalized. Analysts caution that the timeline for any physical transfer is unspecified, and that the 408 kilograms of uranium held by Tehran dwarfs the 13.5 kg the US Department of Energy extracted from a Venezuelan research reactor on May 8, which Trump-administration officials cited as a logistical proof point. [WSJ, May 8]
Hawks within the administration argue surveillance plus the threat of strikes is sufficient leverage to force compliance, while non-proliferation analysts at the Institute for Science and International Security noted in a May 9 report that Israeli and US strikes during Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury prioritized weaponization sites over enrichment facilities, leaving the bulk of the stockpile physically intact. Whether the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium before June 30 depends on three structural factors: Iran's parliamentary ratification of any MOU, the logistics of transferring 408 kg of 60%-enriched material under International Atomic Energy Agency custody, and whether the 30-day talks window holds without a renewed strike cycle. [Jerusalem Post, May 9]
Polymarket prices this at 12c YES with $115K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
Smart money entered NO at 90c.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 90c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | MM | NO | $3.6K | -2% |
NO wallets entered at 90c. At current price 12c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.
Polymarket prices YES at 12c with $115K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $115K |
| Our Model | 12c | — |