Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction (5 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jul 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $4.5M

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Q: How did 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 6 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

STRONG RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	3c	94%
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	15c	70%
Claude Analysis	NO	4c	88%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	3c	82%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	7c	93%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money positioning is overwhelmingly NO-dominant: seven tracked wallets entered NO at 87-96c, treating the outcome as a near-certain fade with no meaningful YES conviction. The 9c YES entries read as cheap lottery tickets, not directional alpha. Wallet behavior signals US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by June 30 is priced as structurally implausible.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$101.8K	0%
This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (0%), $101.8K on NO Activity · 4 events · May 26 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal May 26BUYNO91+$17,326$17,326 May 27BUYNO95+$12,588$30,677 May 28BUYNO95+$24,188$54,865 May 29BUYNO96+$48,000$103,442 Realized— Unrealized−$277 Total Profit−$277 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1526) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	NO	$12.5K	+5%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (+5%), $12.5K on NO Activity · 7 events · May 08 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal May 08BUYNO90+$3,620$3,620 May 11BUYNO89+$534$4,113 May 12BUYNO88+$880$4,947 May 20BUYNO86+$3,430$8,251 May 23BUYNO89+$545$9,108 May 24BUYNO90+$900$10,110 May 29BUYNO96+$3,820$14,548 Realized— Unrealized+$678 Total Profit+$678 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1232) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$11.8K	+8%
This Market Entered at 88c → now 50c (+8%), $11.8K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 21 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 21BUYNO87+$299$299 May 23BUYNO88+$10,627$10,929 Realized— Unrealized+$827 Total Profit+$827 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1870) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x2e0b..70	MM	NO	$7.9K	0%
This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (0%), $7.9K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 27 DatePositionAmountTotal May 27BUYNO95+$7,980$7,980 Realized— Unrealized−$42 Total Profit−$42 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (739) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$2.2K	-42%
This Market Entered at 9c → now 50c (-42%), $2.2K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal May 25BUYYES9+$3,840$3,840 Realized— Unrealized−$1,612 Total Profit−$1,612 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1532) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$2.0K	+8%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 87c → now 50c (+8%), $2.0K on NO Activity · 4 events · May 12 → May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal May 12BUYNO88+$321$321 May 23BUYNO86+$1,155$1,469 May 25BUYNO91+$264$1,818 May 26BUYNO91+$101$1,919 Realized— Unrealized+$152 Total Profit+$152 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1828 trades).
0x22db..0f	Retail	NO	$1.9K	-2%
This Market Entered at 96c → now 50c (-2%), $1.9K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal May 29BUYNO96+$1,920$1,920 Realized— Unrealized−$30 Total Profit−$30 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1588 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

98% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$7,301 on $140.1K capital deployed (avg +5.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

98% in profit

YES positions

2% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$4.5M	0c
AI Consensus	7c	—	✓ matched

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