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Resolved: Jun 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $20.5M

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Resolved · JUN 01
NO
100c
YES
0c
Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (5 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.
MODERATE RESULT
NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG
14c
42c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
Bayesian Update NO 4c
92%
PIN Model NO 3c
94%
Compound Signal NO 15c
70%
Claude Analysis NO 4c
92%
DeepSeek Quant NO 5c
82%
Gemini Flash NO 18c
75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

9 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 14 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 9 market makers are providing $162K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 74c–96c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x0c0e..4eMMNO$76.0K+4%
0xa52b..80RetailNO$64.6K0%
0x5cd5..33 RetailNO$46.1K+4%
0xc021..a8 MMNO$28.9K+7%
0xde7b..4bRetailYES$26.7K-73%
0xe25b..1bRetailNO$17.0K+22%
0x12d6..a8MMNO$15.8K+22%
0x162f..8dMMNO$15.6K+9%
0x7c3d..6bMMNO$9.4K+1%
0x94eb..e6MMNO$9.4K-1%
0xc408..75MMNO$3.9K+22%
0xbacd..35RetailYES$2.0K-16%
0x5188..04MMNO$1.9K-2%
0x4e25..a7MMYES$1.1K-70%
See all 87 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

91% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$7,855 on $318.5K capital deployed (avg +2.5%).

NO positions
91% in profit
YES positions
9% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 6c $20.5M 0c
AI Consensus 8c ✓ matched