AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 97c |
94%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 93c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 62c |
48%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 97c |
95%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 87c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 87c, positioning itself as smart money aligned with the dominant bullish side. Their entry well below the current 94c signals conviction that a US-China tariff agreement will materialize by December 31, and the lack of any NO entries from this wallet confirms no hedging or contrarian bets. This positioning implies the informed flow sees the agreement as highly probable, supporting further upside toward resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeec5..fe | Retail | YES | $3.2K | +8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$480 on $3.2K capital deployed (avg +14.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 95c | $303.0K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 87c | — | ✓ matched |